Economic outlook uncertainty
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S&P Global: U.S. government shutdown adds uncertainty to economic outlook
Youtube· 2025-10-02 14:13
Core Points - The government shutdown is impacting federal employees, with layoffs expected to begin soon, affecting approximately 750,000 workers [10] - The shutdown is anticipated to delay the September jobs report, which is crucial for economic data collection and could add uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [9][7] - The White House is exerting pressure on Senate Democrats to reach an agreement, with significant cuts to infrastructure and green energy projects announced [11][12] Economic Impact - The shutdown could lead to a reduction in GDP, with past estimates indicating a potential loss of about $11 billion or 0.3% of real GDP from previous shutdowns [3] - The current GDP stands at 3.8%, and the shutdown is expected to negatively affect growth and working Americans [2] Legislative Developments - President Trump is meeting with budget officials to discuss potential cuts to Democratic agencies, which may complicate negotiations [5][7] - The Senate is scheduled to vote on funding the government, but bipartisan support appears uncertain at this time [8][13] - There are ongoing discussions among Republicans and Democrats regarding tax credits and other fiscal measures, but a clear solution remains elusive [14]
Fed approves quarter-point interest rate cut and sees two more coming this year
CNBC· 2025-09-17 18:00
Core Points - The Federal Reserve approved a quarter-point rate cut, lowering the overnight funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [1][2] - The decision was made with an 11-to-1 vote, indicating less dissent than expected, with Governor Stephen Miran advocating for a half-point cut [1][3] - The Fed signaled that two more rate cuts are anticipated before the end of the year due to concerns over the U.S. labor market [2][5] Economic Conditions - The Fed characterized economic activity as "moderated," noting slowed job gains and elevated inflation [4] - Projections indicate slightly faster economic growth than previous estimates, while unemployment and inflation outlooks remain unchanged [8] - The unemployment rate reached 4.3% in August, the highest since October 2021, with job creation stagnant and nearly a million fewer jobs created than initially reported [13] Political Influence - The meeting was preceded by significant political drama, with President Trump advocating for aggressive rate cuts [3][10] - Miran's appointment and his criticism of Chair Jerome Powell raise questions about the Fed's independence from political influence [10] - A court blocked Trump from removing Governor Lisa Cook, who voted for the quarter-point cut, amidst accusations of mortgage fraud [11]