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油脂周报:棕油销区买兴较好,油脂低位有所反弹-20250512
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April will increase significantly and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. However, the buying enthusiasm of China and India has increased recently. As Brazilian soybeans gradually arrive at ports and customs clearance issues are resolved, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills will increase significantly, and the soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate seasonally, with the soybean oil basis likely to weaken. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil change little, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the rapeseed oil futures price fluctuates due to international relations [4][27]. - It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a volatile trend. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while the fundamentals of palm oil are gradually weakening and may run weakly. From the perspective of the futures price, the downward space of palm oil may be limited. [29] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events & Market Review - Three major forecasting agencies predict that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April may reach 1.79 million tons, and the production may increase by 17% to 1.62 million tons. The Gapki data shows that the production of Indonesian palm oil in February changed little month - on - month, exports reached 2.8 million tons, and the inventory dropped to a historically low level of 2.25 million tons [4]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Three major forecasting agencies estimate the production, import, export, domestic consumption, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April. The MPOB report will be released on Tuesday noon. The production in April is expected to increase significantly, but exports are still at a relatively low level in the same period of history [5][7]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The inventory of Indonesian palm oil in February was at a low level, and biodiesel consumption may be better than expected. The market is still skeptical about the implementation of B40 in Indonesia, but the biodiesel consumption data shows good implementation. The origin quotation is weakening, and palm oil is regaining market share [11]. - **India**: The import of edible oil in India in April may drop to around 870,000 tons, and the port inventory may drop to about 810,000 tons. The import and refining profits of the three major oils have improved, and the recent purchasing enthusiasm for palm oil has increased [16]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 3.23% week - on - week to 356,100 tons, still at a relatively low level. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there were many purchases this week. The spot trading volume increased, and the basis was stable. The downward space of palm oil futures price may be limited [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 0.23% week - on - week to 619,900 tons, at a neutral - to - slightly - low level. The soybean crushing volume increased, and the basis decreased. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will enter a stage of inventory accumulation, and the basis will be weak. The market is concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel [22]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed crushing volume decreased last week. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased to 835,500 tons, at a historically high level. The import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil expanded. The spot trading volume increased slightly, and the basis decreased slightly. The futures price is affected by policies and maintains a wide - range volatile trend [25]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a volatile trend. Palm oil can be considered for light - position long - entry for a rebound or short - entry after a rebound. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [29]. Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking This part mainly presents various data charts, including the monthly production, export, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil; the supply and demand data of Indian oils; the import profit of domestic oils; the supply and demand and inventory data of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; and the basis data of domestic oils [31][32][33].