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90% Advancing Days Offer a Glimmer of Hope in a Corrective Market
ZACKSยท 2025-03-19 15:02
Market Overview - After a two-day rally, U.S. stocks declined as bears regained control, with significant volatility expected around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The Trump administration confirmed new tariffs will be imposed in early April, contributing to market uncertainty [1] Market Sentiment and Trends - Recent trading saw back-to-back days with 90% of S&P 500 Index stocks advancing, a potential indicator of a market bottom [2] - Historical data shows that after two consecutive 90% advancing days following a 6-month low, the S&P 500 Index has risen in all 17 instances two months later [2][3] Seasonal Patterns - Historical seasonality trends indicate that stocks typically bottom in late March and rally into the summer, aligning with current market conditions [4] Bullish Sentiment - The AAII Bull/Bear sentiment survey reported bullish sentiment at its lowest since September 2022, with levels below 20% for three consecutive weeks, indicating extreme bearishness [6] Key Stocks to Watch - The "Magnificent 7" stocks, now referred to as "Lag7" due to recent underperformance, remain significant in the market, with Tesla seeing some recovery after an analyst upgrade [8] - Meta Platforms and Amazon are testing their 200-day moving averages, while Apple and Nvidia are below this moving average, indicating varying levels of market strength among these tech giants [8] Conclusion - The combination of strong market breadth signals, favorable seasonal trends, and low bullish sentiment presents a potentially positive outlook for future market gains [10]