Electric and software - defined vehicles
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F vs. GM: Which Auto Giant Is the Better Investment After Q3?
ZACKSยท 2025-11-17 13:46
Core Insights - General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) are two leading American automakers that have shown resilience through economic cycles and are transitioning towards electric and software-defined vehicles, with both companies reporting better-than-expected results in Q3 2025 [1][2] Q3 Results Review - Ford's Q3 2025 adjusted EPS was 45 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents but down from 49 cents in the previous year. Consolidated revenues reached $50.5 billion, a 9.3% increase year-over-year, with total automotive revenues at $47.2 billion, surpassing the estimate of $42.7 billion [4] - General Motors reported an adjusted EPS of $2.80, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.28 but down from $2.96 a year ago. Revenues were $48.59 billion, exceeding the estimate of $43.61 billion but slightly lower than $48.76 billion from the previous year [6] Growth Drivers - Ford Pro is a significant growth driver for Ford, supported by strong demand for Super Duty trucks and expanding software and service offerings, with paid subscriptions increasing by 8% to 818,000 in Q3 [5] - GM's software and services business is gaining momentum, with approximately $2 billion in revenues recognized year-to-date from offerings like Super Cruise and OnStar, and deferred revenues reaching $5 billion, up over 90% year-over-year. OnStar's subscriber base grew 34% to over 11 million [7] Outlook - GM has raised its free cash flow (FCF) and EPS guidance for 2025, forecasting adjusted automotive FCF at $10-$11 billion and adjusted diluted EPS at $9.75-$10.50, indicating a stronger 2026 [8][9] - Ford has reduced its 2025 EBIT and free cash flow outlook due to supply disruptions from a fire at Novelis' aluminum plant, expecting a fourth-quarter EBIT headwind of $1.5-$2 billion and a free cash flow impact of $2-$3 billion [10] Balance Sheet - GM had total automotive liquidity of $35.7 billion as of September 30, 2025, while Ford ended Q3 with over $54 billion in liquidity. GM has a lower long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio compared to Ford [11] Dividend and Buyback Appeal - Ford offers a high dividend yield of over 4%, targeting distributions of 40-50% of FCF, while GM's dividend yield is less than 1%. GM has repurchased over $3.5 billion in stock year-to-date, enhancing shareholder value [12][13] Valuation - Ford is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 9.74X, above its five-year median of 7.48X, while GM's forward earnings multiple is at 6.26X, slightly above its median of 5.54X [14] EPS Estimates - Ford's 2025 EPS consensus indicates a year-over-year decline of 41.3%, while GM's 2025 EPS consensus implies a decline of 3%, with both companies expected to see an uptick in 2026 [17][18] Investment Recommendation - GM is viewed as a stronger investment option due to its upgraded guidance, expanding software revenue, and disciplined cost management, while Ford faces challenges from supply disruptions and a projected EPS decline [19][20]