Core Insights - Croatia is preparing to acquire Serbia's Russian-owned oil company NIS to protect its state-owned oil pipeline operator JANAF from the impact of U.S. sanctions [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Their Impact - The U.S. sanctions against NIS took effect this week, cutting off the company from key Western partners, with JANAF confirming it has authorization to continue deliveries until October 15 [2] - The sanctions are expected to disrupt oil supplies in the region, particularly affecting Bosnia and Herzegovina, which relies on NIS for approximately 20% of its oil derivatives [4] - JANAF's business with NIS accounts for over 30% of its annual revenue, and the halt in deliveries could cost Croatia an estimated €18 million through the end of 2025 [4] Group 2: Strategic Intent of Acquisition - The acquisition of NIS by Croatia is framed as a strategic move to safeguard JANAF's operations rather than an attempt to dominate Serbia's retail market [3][6] - Šušnjar emphasized that the goal is to stabilize energy ties in the region and promote energy cooperation amid geopolitical pressures [6] Group 3: Ownership Structure of NIS - Gazprom Neft, the Russian state-owned oil giant, previously held a 50% stake in NIS but now owns 44.9%, while another Gazprom-linked entity holds 11.3%, and Serbia retains a 29.9% share [5]

Core Points - Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to China is seen as a sign of improving Sino-Indian relations after a period of tension, but the visit coincides with the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods, causing strong discontent in India [1][4] - The U.S. decision to impose tariffs is linked to India's significant increase in oil imports from Russia, which surged from 20,000 tons in 2014 to 31.45 million tons in 2022, making Russia India's largest oil supplier by 2023 [4][9] - The U.S. tariffs may push India closer to China, as analysts suggest that the U.S. needs India's support to counterbalance China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region [10][11] Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on Indian goods during Modi's visit, which includes an initial 25% tariff and an additional 25% due to India's oil imports from Russia [4] - The Indian government criticized the U.S. for its unfair treatment, noting that China also imports Russian oil in large quantities [4] India's Oil Imports - India's oil imports from Russia increased dramatically from 1% of total imports to 42% in 2022, with imports reaching 50.84 million tons in 2023 [4] - Despite U.S. pressure, Indian private companies continue to import Russian oil at a significant scale, approximately 4.027 million tons annually [4] Sino-Russian Energy Cooperation - China's energy cooperation with Russia is characterized by long-term stability, with oil imports growing from 30 million tons in 2015 to over 100 million tons by 2021, making Russia China's largest oil supplier [7][9] - The contrast between India's short-term speculative imports and China's strategic partnership with Russia highlights the differing approaches to energy security [9] Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. tariffs may lead India to reconsider its geopolitical alliances, potentially moving closer to China, especially if India opts for a neutral stance in the U.S.-China rivalry [10] - Despite historical tensions, India expresses a desire to maintain a comprehensive global partnership with the U.S., indicating a complex balancing act in its foreign policy [11]