chief equity strategist at Deutsche Bank. Binky, it's great to speak with you. Uh, and let's start right there because so far and maybe Netflix and Texas instruments notwithstanding, it does seem like it's been a a pretty strong earning season.>> Uh, yeah, I think you know, bigger picture, one wants to keep in mind that basically over the last two years, uh, S&P 500 earnings have basically bobbed up and down around 11% earnings growth. 11% earnings growth happens to be uh the historical average outside of r ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 has experienced one of its best stretches since the 1950s, despite warnings, and is currently less than 0.3% from a record high [1][14] - October, historically known for volatility, has seen traders paying more for protection against a market surge than a downturn, although this trend is beginning to shift [3][4] Investor Sentiment - Risk aversion has increased as traders sell upside calls to fund downside protection, indicating a cautious approach despite a 1.7% rally in the S&P 500 last week [6][14] - Discretionary investors are now underweight in equities, having shifted from a moderately overweight position, which may allow them to return as buyers if corporate profits remain strong [8][10] Trading Strategies - Computer-guided traders have reduced their exposure to US equities, moving from elevated levels to moderately overweight, while trend-following funds have seen their positioning decline to the lowest in over three months [10][11] - The most speculative sectors, particularly unprofitable tech companies, have surged, with Goldman Sachs' basket of such stocks rallying 16% in October, indicating a potential disconnect from fundamentals [12][14] Economic Outlook - There is a prevailing belief that the Federal Reserve will lower rates soon, but many investors may be overestimating the impact of such reductions on the economy [6][14] - The uncertainty surrounding trade talks and Fed policy continues to create a challenging environment for investors, with potential risks for a selloff looming [14]