All right, that's a quick snapshot of how we get up and running for trade today. Uh let's get to George Sis who joins me this morning. Very good morning to you, George.And we do have some uh data hitting the tape this morning. We've got consumer sentiment. Let's start with that.What are you seeing. >> Well, I think if you consider consumer sentiment, if you go back to 2024, October of 2024, so almost a little bit over a year ago, sentiment's actually drifted lower, but it st seems to stabilized slightly abo ...

Core Insights - Existing-home sales in the U.S. increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million in October, marking a 1.7% year-over-year gain and the best month for home resales since February [2][8] - Favorable borrowing costs, with average mortgage rates at 6.25% in October compared to 6.43% in October 2024, motivated homebuyers [3][8] - The government shutdown did not significantly hinder home sales, although it impacted some government-backed mortgage loans [4][8] Market Dynamics - The national home supply stood at 4.4 months in October, slightly above last year's levels, contributing to a more favorable environment for buyers [3][8] - Despite the increase in sales, existing-home sales remain near their lowest levels in over a decade due to high costs and persistent interest rates [6][9] - The median house price in October was $415,200, reflecting a 2.1% increase from October 2024, marking the 28th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases [10]

Housing Market Trends - The housing market is undergoing a recalibration period after the pandemic boom, with a shift in the supply-demand equilibrium towards buyers [7][16] - A bifurcation exists in the housing market, with Sun Belt and Mountain West areas experiencing more softening compared to the Midwest and Northeast [19][20] - Existing home sales are approximately 13 million below the normal trend, indicating a significant constraint in the purchase side of the mortgage market [35] - Refinance activity is also experiencing a three-year drought, coinciding with the low purchase side, making it a tough period for the mortgage industry [42] Builder Strategies and Margins - During the pandemic, builders had significant pricing power and record profit margins, but they have since compressed margins to entice buyers [3][4][5] - Builders initially used mortgage rate buydowns as a successful lever, but are now resorting to outright price cuts in some areas like Florida and Texas [6][8] - Builder margins have seen compression year-over-year among the top 11 publicly traded home builders, although many still exceed pre-pandemic levels [10] - Some builders are choosing to protect margins by pulling back on the overall number of sales, leading to a softening in single-family housing starts [11] Factors Influencing the Market - The deceleration of migration to Sun Belt areas means local incomes must now support prices, which are detached from underlying incomes [21][22][23] - The "lock-in effect," where homeowners are hesitant to give up lower mortgage rates, is impacting both supply and demand in different regions [28][31] - Tariffs have not had a significant impact on build costs, as only 7% of residential construction materials are imported, and some key materials were excluded from tariffs [13][14][15] Open Door Analysis - Open Door overpaid for homes in boomtown markets and faces challenges in the higher interest rate environment with less housing market churn [45] - There is skepticism about the long-term viability of Open Door's core I-buying business, but opportunities exist for the company to leverage its scale and attention to move into other business avenues [45][46]

Housing Market Sales - Existing home sales in July increased by 2% month-over-month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 401 million units, exceeding market expectations [1] - Year-over-year sales increased by 08% compared to July of the previous year [1] Housing Market Supply and Price - The number of homes for sale at the end of July was 155 million, up 157% year-over-year [2] - The current sales pace represents a 46% month supply [2] - The median price of a home sold in July was $422400, a slight increase of 02% from July of the previous year, marking a new July high [2] Buyer Trends - First-time buyers accounted for 28% of sales, down from 30% in June, historically they make up 40% [3] - All-cash transactions reached 31%, up from 27% the year before, which is considered unusually high [3][4] Regional Sales - Sales were strongest in the Northeast month-over-month and weakest in the Midwest [3]

Market Overview - The Dow finished down -11 points (-0.027%) after reaching an intra-day high of +286 points [1] - The S&P 500 lost -12 points (-0.22%), the Nasdaq was down -59 points (-0.33%), and the Russell 2000 fell -13 points (-0.65%) [1] Existing Home Sales - February Existing Home Sales reached 4.26 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, exceeding the estimate of 3.95 million and the previous month's 4.08 million [2] - The average median price of existing homes increased by +3.8% year over year to $398.4K [2] Leading Economic Indicators - U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February decreased by -0.3%, down from +0.2% in the prior quarter and lower than the anticipated -0.2% [3] - The LEI is now at -1.0% over the trailing six months, an improvement from -2.1% in the previous six months [3] - New manufacturing orders declined, and consumer sentiment remains fragile, with 2025 GDP now estimated at +2.0% [3] Earnings Reports - NIKE (NKE) reported fiscal Q3 earnings per share of 54 cents, surpassing the Zacks consensus estimate of 28 cents, with revenues of $11.27 billion exceeding expectations of $11.11 billion [5] - NIKE's margins were slightly soft at +41.5%, with the Chinese market underperforming [5] - FedEx (FDX) reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $4.51 per share, below the Zacks consensus of $4.65, while revenues were $22.2 billion, exceeding expectations of $21.89 billion [7] - FedEx's full-year earnings are now expected to be between $18.00 and $18.60 per share, down from the prior estimate of $19.27 [7] - Micron (MU) posted fiscal Q2 earnings of $1.56 per share and revenues of $8.05 billion, both exceeding expectations [8] - Micron has guided for a record revenue quarter in Q3, projecting $8.8 billion, with full-year revenues expected to reach $37.9 billion [8]