Summary of Conference Call on China OTAs Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Chinese Online Travel Agencies (OTAs)** and the impact of government measures on travel consumption and demand during upcoming holidays [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Policies**: The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued policies aimed at expanding service consumption, which includes measures to attract more inbound visitors and optimize holiday arrangements for students [1][2]. 2. **Holiday Demand**: Anticipation of decent travel demand during the upcoming **Golden Week**, which will be an 8-day holiday, one day longer than in 2024. This is expected to benefit long-haul and outbound travel significantly [1][3]. 3. **Railway Passenger Estimates**: The China State Railway Group estimates that railway passenger throughput could reach **219 million** during the 12-day transportation period from **September 29 to October 10**, with an average daily throughput of **18.25 million**, reflecting a **24% year-over-year increase** [3]. 4. **Booking Trends**: Preliminary booking data from OTA platforms indicate a **30% year-over-year growth** in domestic travel willingness and over **40% year-over-year growth** in outbound travel willingness [5]. 5. **Long-Haul Travel**: Data from Ctrip and Qunar show that top destinations during the 2024 Golden Week include Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia, with increasing interest in long-haul destinations like Australia and Europe [6]. Company-Specific Insights 1. **Tongcheng Travel Holdings**: - Target price set at **HK$28**, based on a **16x non-IFRS 2026E EPS**, reflecting strong growth momentum [7]. - Risks include competition from OTA peers and reliance on hotel supply from Trip.com [8]. 2. **Trip.com Group Ltd**: - Target price set at **US$85**, with the core business valued at approximately **US$78 per share** based on a **20x P/E for 2026E** [9]. - Risks include a potential softening of the macro environment affecting travel demand and increased domestic competition [10]. Additional Important Information - The longer holiday period is expected to dilute the daily average number of travelers, making the total passenger throughput more significant than the daily averages suggest [3]. - The call emphasized the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and competition in the OTA space, as these factors could impact the growth trajectories of the companies discussed [8][10].