Expected Credit Loss (ECL) regime

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Jefferies flags top 4 bank stocks as RBI norms set to fuel credit uptick
The Economic Timesยท 2025-10-03 06:31
Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.5% provides relief to private banks while supporting credit growth through various measures [6][8] - Jefferies prefers larger private banks in India, specifically HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and ICICI Bank, along with State Bank of India (SBI) as top picks due to their stronger capital adequacy and buffer provisions [7][8] - The RBI has announced steps to improve credit flow, including allowing banks to finance acquisitions by corporates and removing lending ceilings against debt securities [3][6] Group 2 - The RBI has increased lending limits for shares from Rs 20 lakh to Rs 1 crore and for IPO financing from Rs 10 lakh to Rs 25 lakh, which will enhance credit availability [3][6] - Restrictions on banks' lending to large borrowers with credit limits exceeding Rs 100 billion have been withdrawn, and risk weights on loans to high-quality operational infrastructure projects have been reduced [6][8] - The transition to the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) regime will begin in April 2027, with the one-time charge impact potentially offset by lower risk weights over five years [7][8] Group 3 - The RBI's neutral liquidity stance limits smaller private banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) from benefiting from potential deposit rate cuts, which may negatively impact their margins [2][8] - Larger banks with stronger capital buffers are better positioned to navigate the transition to the ECL regime while capitalizing on expanded lending opportunities [8]