Export Competitiveness

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India's $434 billion merchandise exports engine: What's at stake after Trump doubles tariffs to 50%
CNBCยท 2025-08-07 04:18
Core Insights - The U.S. has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, leading to a potential total tariff of 50%, significantly impacting India's exports to the U.S. [1][2] - India's exports to the U.S. accounted for nearly 20% of its total goods exports, which reached approximately $434 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2025 [2][3] - The tariffs are expected to reduce India's GDP growth from a forecasted 7% to around 6% for the current and next year [3] Engineering Goods - Engineering goods are India's largest exports to the U.S., totaling nearly $117 billion, with about $19.16 billion (16%) sold to the U.S. [4] - The sector is already facing a 50% tariff on steel exports, which could worsen the outlook for other engineering segments [5] Gems and Jewelry - The gems and jewelry sector contributes 7% to India's GDP and employs around 5 million workers, with 33% of its exports directed to the U.S. [6] - Higher tariffs are seen as an additional burden on the sector, prompting calls for government support [7] Textiles and Apparels - The textiles sector employs about 45 million workers and also faces significant challenges due to the new tariffs, with 34% of its exports going to the U.S. [8][9] - The sector's competitiveness is at risk as it will no longer enjoy a significant duty differential advantage compared to other countries [9] Electronics - The electronics sector is highly exposed to U.S. tariffs, with 38% of its exports going to the U.S. [10] - India has recently become the top exporter of smartphones to the U.S., with exports of electronic goods more than doubling to $2.76 billion in March 2025 [11] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector, which is currently exempt from tariffs, faces potential duties that could reach as high as 250% in the future [12][13] - Exports to the U.S. reached over $10.5 billion, accounting for nearly 35% of India's total pharmaceutical shipments [13] Overall Competitiveness - India's export competitiveness is likely to be eroded over time as the U.S. can source supplies from alternative locations more easily than India can diversify its exports [15][16] - Approximately 32% of India's exports to the U.S. are currently exempt from tariffs, including electronics and pharmaceuticals [17]