Fear Of Inflation Long - term (F.O.I.L.)
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Will We See the Stickers Again?
Yahoo Finance· 2026-03-09 11:28
Equities - US stock index futures are under pressure with major markets showing consistent losses of about 1.1% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 453.19 points (0.95%), S&P 500 down 90.69 points (1.33%), and Nasdaq down 361.31 points (1.59%) [1] - The Dow finished the first week of March down 1,476.37 points (3.0%), S&P 500 down 138.86 points (2.0%), and Nasdaq down 280.53 points (1.2%) [1] - Asian and European markets also showed declines, raising concerns about a potential long-term break in US and global stocks [1] - Current market activity indicates a Fear Of Inflation Long-term (F.O.I.L.) with the Fed fund futures suggesting the next rate cut may be pushed back to September due to inflation fears [1] Energies - The WTI crude oil contract hit a high near $119.50, reminiscent of the price spikes seen during the early months of the Ukraine conflict [2] - Spot distillates peaked above $4.47 and RBOB gasoline reached $3.22, levels not seen in the past four years [2] - The article draws a parallel between current gas prices and past political events, questioning the potential for similar public sentiment regarding the current administration [2] Metals - The metals sector faced pressure with April gold down $62 (1.2%) and May silver down $4.671 (5.5%) [3] - Despite short-term selloffs, the long-term uptrend in gold is expected to continue due to new interest from global central banks and long-term investors [3] - Ongoing global political and economic instability is likely to maintain gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3] Ag - The Grains sector saw significant gains, with May corn increasing by 15.5 cents on high trade volume [4] - The Commitments of Traders report indicated a growth in noncommercial net-long futures positions, with May soybeans rallying by 33.0 cents [4] - The wheat sub-sector also experienced increases, with May SRW adding 25.0 cents, and a potential shift to a net-long position for funds in all three wheat markets [4] - May sugar rallied by 0.36 cent (2.5%) after reaching a new 4-week high [4]
Was the Commodity Complex F.O.I.L.-ed Again Overnight Through Early Friday Morning?
Yahoo Finance· 2026-03-06 11:04
Soybean Market - The soybean market saw an increase, with the May issue rising by 9.25 cents overnight, reaching a pre-dawn price of 7.25 cents higher [1] - The National Index was reported at approximately $11.0550, up about 9.75 cents, while the national average basis calculation remained weak at 73.75 cents under May futures, below the previous 5-year and 10-year averages [1] - Weekly export sales indicated the US was on track to ship 1.234 billion bushels, with total commitments to China about 50% lower than the same week last year [1] Corn Market - The corn market experienced an uptick, gaining 2.75 cents overnight, driven by the influence of soybeans and soybean oil [4] - The National Price Index for corn was reported at approximately $4.1175, with the national average basis at 41.75 cents under May futures, consistent with last year's figures [4] - The May-July futures spread closed at 9.25 cents, covering a neutral 45% calculated full commercial carry [4] Wheat Market - The wheat market showed solid gains across all three markets, although the long-term supply and demand outlook remains bearish [5] - July HRW futures rose by 8.25 cents, reaching $6.1625, the highest price since March 2025, while the July-September futures spread closed at a carry of 14.25 cents [5] - The new-crop futures spreads indicated a bearish sentiment, covering 63% and 59% of calculated full commercial carry for July-September and September-December, respectively [5]