- This export terminal is one of the world's biggest outside China. It is being built in Brazil just outside Sao Paulo by the Chinese state agricultural giant Cofco. At the cost of $285 million, it could spell the loss of billions of dollars in revenue for American farmers.Here's why. Beijing has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on American agricultural products over the last decade, making China one of the top markets for American farmers. - [Donald] We'll be discussing trade.- In 2018, Washington int ...

Market Catalysts anchor Julie Hyman breaks down the latest market news for August 18, 2025. President Trump's tariffs are impacting soybean farmers. China "currently has zero soybeans purchased from the US, from the crop that is starting to be harvested right now, and that is a five-alarm fire for the US soybean farmer," the American Soybean Association President and farmer said as he described the tenuous situation as US soybean farmers wait for orders from China. National Association of Home Builders CEO ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Commodity Market Positioning & Flows Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global commodities market, specifically analyzing market positioning and flows as of August 11, 2025. Key Points and Arguments Market Positioning - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest increased by 0.7% week-over-week (WOW) to approximately $1.49 trillion, which is still at the lower end of the 2025 range but up 10% year-to-date (YTD) as of August 8 [3][9][10]. - Contract-based inflows returned to 10-year average levels at $14.6 billion WOW, primarily driven by gold markets, which saw inflows of $12.4 billion WOW due to US tariff risks [3][4]. Tariff Risks and Economic Events - The US-China tariff truce is expected to end on August 12, with President Trump likely to extend it for another 90 days. This uncertainty is influencing market dynamics [3]. - A scheduled summit between President Trump and President Putin regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine is also noted, which may impact commodity prices [3]. Investor Positioning - The net investor position across global commodity futures markets decreased by 6.1% WOW, reaching $128 billion as of August 5 [3][15]. - Notional investor positioning in base metals decreased by 26% WOW, while energy markets saw a 50% decrease in positioning [3][15]. Precious Metals - The estimated value of open interest in precious metals surged by $17 billion WOW to $263 billion, driven by significant inflows into gold markets [3][27]. - Managed Money net length in COMEX Gold futures increased by 19.7k contracts to approximately 154k contracts net long, indicating strong bullish sentiment [4][17]. Energy Markets - The estimated value of open interest in energy markets declined by $19.5 billion WOW to $622 billion, marking a return to ten-week lows amid price weakness [3][22]. - Contract-based flows were muted, with outflows from refined product markets offset by inflows to natural gas markets [3]. Agricultural Markets - The estimated open interest value in agricultural markets increased by 1.7% WOW to $326 billion, driven by net contract-based inflows of $2 billion WOW [3][29]. - Trade uncertainty is highlighted, particularly regarding US soybean orders from China, which remain at zero for the new crop [3]. Price Momentum - Price momentum across commodities was mixed, with increases in most metals and agricultural markets, while energy prices declined [3][50]. - Specific trading signals indicate a positive momentum for COMEX Gold and Silver, while NYMEX Palladium has turned negative [3][50]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of geopolitical events on commodity markets, particularly the influence of tariffs and international relations on investor sentiment and positioning [3]. - The dynamics of supply and demand in various sectors, such as energy and agriculture, are crucial for understanding future price movements and investment opportunities [3][4][5]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state of the commodities market, highlighting key trends, risks, and potential investment opportunities.

Politics & Security - President Trump considering deploying up to 1,000 National Guard troops in Washington DC to enhance security [1] - President Trump planning a news conference on DC crime at 10:00 a m Eastern time [1] Trade & Economy - President Trump urging China to quickly quadruple its soybean orders to address shortages and reduce the trade deficit [2] Commodity Markets - Shares of lithium miners spiking in Asia after battery giant CL halted operations at a major mine in China [2] Entertainment Industry - Warner Brothers's "Weapons" takes the top spot at the weekend box office with $42.5 million in the US and Canada [3] - "Weapons" marks the sixth consecutive hit for Warner Brothers after a period of box office underperformance [3] - Disney's "Freakier Friday" brings in $29 million [3] - "Freakier Friday" marks one of the best opening weekends for a mid-budget comedy in years [4] Technology Industry - AOL is discontinuing its dial-up service, with the last day being September 30th [4]

Trade Relations - US President hopes China significantly increases purchases of American soybeans [1] - This expectation arises a day before a trade truce is set to expire [1]

China has long worried about its shortage of soybeans, solidifying its rank as the world’s biggest buyer to the benefit of farmers from the US to Brazil. But as its economy slackens, the country is quietly reshaping trade in the oilseed’s products https://t.co/8jc1CczUjT ...

Trade Performance - China's July exports increased by 8% year-on-year in RMB terms [2] - China's July imports increased by 4.8% year-on-year in RMB terms [2] - China's July trade surplus narrowed to 705.1 billion RMB [2] - China's July exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year in USD terms [2] - China's July imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year in USD terms [2] - China's July trade surplus was 98240 million USD [2] Import & Export Commodities - China's July fertilizer exports increased by 85% year-on-year, reaching 5704000 tonnes [1] - China's July rare earth exports increased by 21% year-on-year, reaching 59943 tonnes [1] - China's July automobile exports increased by 26% year-on-year, reaching 694000 vehicles [1] - China's July integrated circuit exports increased by 16% year-on-year, reaching 31840 million units [1] - China's July soybean imports increased by 18% year-on-year, reaching 11666000 tonnes [1] - China's July crude oil imports increased by 11.5% year-on-year, reaching 47204000 tonnes [1] - China's July copper ore and concentrate imports increased by 18% year-on-year, reaching 2560000 tonnes [1] - China's July coal imports decreased by 23% year-on-year, reaching 35609000 tonnes [1]

Crop Production Outlook - USDA (美国农业部) 最新作物评级显示，美国有望实现创纪录的玉米收成和接近纪录的大豆收成 [1] - 玉米状况为 9 年来 7 月中旬最佳水平 [1] - 大豆状况为 5 年来同期最高水平 [1] Market Price Pressure - 预期未来几个月大量作物进入市场，玉米和大豆价格可能面临维持当前价格水平的挑战 [2] - 来自巴西出口的激烈竞争，玉米期货价格已跌至 19 年来最低点（经通货膨胀调整后）[2] - 随着秋季收割临近，农民出售无法储存的谷物，农作物价格往往会走弱 [2] - 所有供应同时涌入市场，往往会对价格构成下行压力 [3]

Soybean Imports - China's soybean imports from Brazil reached 10620 thousand tons in June, accounting for 866% of total imports, a 92% increase YoY [1] - Soybean imports from the US were 1580 thousand tons, representing 129% of total imports, a 206% increase YoY [1] - Total soybean imports reached a record high of 12264 thousand tons, a 1035% increase YoY [2] Trade Data - Rare earth exports increased by 603% YoY to 77422 tons, and 32% MoM [2] - Integrated circuit exports increased by 253% YoY to 3184 billion units [2] - Mobile phone exports decreased by 13% YoY to 61179 thousand units [2] - Coal and lignite imports decreased by 259% YoY to 33037 thousand tons [2] - Automobile (including chassis) imports decreased by 283% YoY to 43 thousand vehicles [2]

Core Viewpoint - The impending tariffs, scheduled to take effect on August 1, could significantly impact consumer prices and the economy, despite Wall Street's perception that they are mere posturing [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - Tariffs are essentially taxes imposed on imported goods, which can lead to increased prices for consumers as businesses are likely to pass on the additional costs [4][10]. - Affected products include a wide range of goods, from cars to groceries, with potential price increases of up to 15% or more [5][11]. - The broad nature of the tariffs will create ripple effects throughout the economy, influencing prices even for domestically produced goods [8][11]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Past trade disputes have shown that tariffs can lead to inflation, supply chain disruptions, and job instability in sectors reliant on global trade [6][12]. - While some domestic industries may benefit from tariffs, the overall effect on the average consumer is likely to be higher costs [13]. Group 3: Financial Strategies - Companies and consumers are advised to take proactive financial measures, such as making major purchases before price increases occur [15]. - Stocking up on non-perishable essentials and seeking domestic alternatives can help mitigate the impact of rising prices [16][17]. - Strengthening emergency funds and considering inflation-resistant investments, such as commodities and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), are recommended strategies [21][23].