Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced volatility, slipping below $5,000 an ounce amid thin trading conditions, influenced by recent US inflation data and market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold fell as much as 1.4% on Tuesday, following a 1% loss in the previous session, with current trading at $4,967.82 an ounce [1][6]. - A speculative buying wave had previously pushed gold to a record high above $5,595 an ounce, but a two-day rout brought it back to near $4,400, from which it has regained roughly half of its losses [2]. Group 2: Market Forecasts - Major banks, including BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs, predict that gold prices will resume an upward trend due to persistent factors such as geopolitical tensions and a shift away from currencies and sovereign bonds [3]. - Jefferies analysts have raised their 2026 price forecast for gold to $5,000 an ounce from $4,200, citing inflation and dollar debasement as key supportive macro factors [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts suggest that if gold remains below $5,000 for an extended period, it could discourage bullish traders due to recent volatility, increasing downside risks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The selection of Warsh as a potential Federal Reserve member suggests that Powell may continue to oppose Trump's economic policies [1] Group 1 - The choice of Warsh indicates a likelihood of ongoing tension between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration [1]

Core Insights - Involvement of politicians in central-bank decisions leads to increased unpredictability in inflation, the dollar, and the stock market [1] Group 1 - Political interference in central banking can disrupt traditional economic indicators and market behaviors [1] - The relationship between monetary policy and economic stability may be compromised due to political agendas [1] - Investors may face heightened uncertainty as a result of this political involvement, impacting their decision-making processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The statement from the European Central Bank and other institutions highlights the serious concern regarding the threat to the Federal Reserve's independence [1] Group 1 - The action taken is described as unprecedented, indicating a significant shift in the approach of central banks towards maintaining independence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by the Trump administration is strengthening the support for the U.S. central bank against President Donald Trump's attempts to exert control over it [1] Group 1 - The investigation is perceived as a challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Defenders of the Federal Reserve are becoming more vocal in their support for Powell amid the investigation [1] - The situation highlights the ongoing tension between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve [1]

分组1 - The US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell faces criminal charges for not lowering interest rates quickly enough, reflecting tensions between the Federal Reserve and the US administration [2][3] - The US dollar index is experiencing downward pressure, while the Metals sector, including copper, gold, and silver, has seen significant gains, with silver reaching an all-time high of $84.69, up 6.7% [2][3] - The Grains sector is anticipating the USDA's January WASDE report, with expectations that the report may not significantly alter market trends despite the release of new data [3][4] 分组2 - The corn market showed a slight increase ahead of the USDA's report, with expectations that the agency may release numbers aimed at raising US corn prices, despite large immediate supplies relative to demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been served grand jury subpoenas from the Department of Justice, which may lead to criminal indictment, focusing on his June testimony regarding renovations at Fed office buildings [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - Powell emphasized that no one, including the Fed Chair, is above the law, but the subpoenas should be viewed in the context of the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed [2] - The situation raises concerns about whether monetary policy will be influenced by political pressure rather than economic conditions [2] Group 2: Renovation Controversy - The planned $2.5 billion renovations of the Fed's headquarters have been criticized by White House officials, accusing Powell of overspending and violating oversight laws [5] - Trump has previously suggested that Powell's actions could be grounds for dismissal, although he later indicated it was unlikely unless fraud was involved [5] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of the subpoenas, the dollar and US stock futures declined, while gold prices increased by as much as 2%, indicating a flight to safe-haven assets [4] Group 4: Interest Rate Policy - Trump has been vocal about urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, with recent rate cuts bringing the range to 3.5%-3.75% [6] - Powell has faced criticism from Trump for not implementing larger rate cuts, highlighting ongoing tensions between the administration and the Fed [6]

Federal Reserve Independence - The report discusses whether Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell and Lisa Cook have jeopardized the Fed's independence [1] - The report analyzes why markets have shrugged off these attacks [1] Market Reaction - The report suggests that the market has not reacted strongly to the attacks on the Fed [1] Experts' Opinions - WSJ's Nick Timiraos, Chelsey Dulaney, Alex Frangos, and James Mackintosh discuss the issue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is seeking to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, a move that challenges the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has not seen such an action since its establishment in 1913 [1] Group 1 - The request to the U.S. Supreme Court represents a significant legal battle regarding the authority to dismiss a Federal Reserve official [1] - This unprecedented action raises concerns about the potential implications for the Federal Reserve's autonomy and its ability to operate independently from political influence [1]

Central Bank Independence - The Fed has good reason to resist political bullying based on economic principles [1] - Markets' reaction may determine the fate of the Fed's independence [1] Political Pressure - Donald Trump tried to fire a Fed governor, which is unusual [1] - Donald Trump isn't the first president to put pressure on the central bank [1]