Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index is up by +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.14% [1] - December E-mini S&P futures are up +0.11%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures are up +0.10% [1] Economic Indicators - The October JOLTS report showed job openings unexpectedly rose by +12,000 to a 5-month high of 7.670 million, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected decline to 7.117 million [3] - The September leading indicators fell by -0.3% month-over-month, aligning with expectations [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates a -25 basis point cut in the federal funds target range to 3.50%-3.75% following the FOMC meeting [4] - There is a 90% chance of another -25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC meeting [5] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is nearing completion, with 495 of the 500 S&P companies having reported results [5] - 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, marking the best quarter since 2021, with Q3 earnings rising by +14.6%, significantly above the expected +7.2% year-over-year [5] Upcoming Reports - The Q3 employment cost index is expected to increase by +0.9% [4] - Weekly initial unemployment claims are projected to rise by +29,000 to 220,000 [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. added 209,000 non-farm jobs in July, exceeding expectations of 180,000, marking the ninth consecutive month of better-than-expected job growth [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.6% to 4.1%, the highest level since November 2021 [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 4.0% year-on-year, the lowest since mid-2021, down from 4.1% [1] Group 2 - Job losses were noted in retail (-9,000) and transportation and warehousing (-11,000), indicating companies are cutting non-essential positions [1] - The unemployment rate of 4.1% is close to the Federal Reserve's tolerance limit, historically indicating a potential policy shift when exceeding 4% [1] - The wage-inflation spiral is loosening, with hourly wage growth narrowing for four consecutive quarters, easing upward price pressures [1] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8%, marking the largest drop in a month, as expectations for interest rate cuts increased [1] - Spot gold surged by 1.2%, reaching $2,370, driven by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries dropped by 15 basis points, marking the best single-day performance in three months [1] Group 4 - The market is now pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 68% before the data release [1] - CME interest rate futures indicate the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year, in September and December [1] - The narrowing of high-yield bond spreads suggests a potential decrease in borrowing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 5 - Ordinary investors are advised to increase holdings in medium to long-term U.S. Treasuries and allocate to gold ETFs while remaining cautious on cyclical stocks [1]