US yields are perched at their highest in months after a third straight week of bond losses, with the surge in oil from the Middle East conflict leading traders to position for the possibility of a Fed rate hike https://t.co/pG6SWMRCY7 ...

Rate traders are now pricing in a higher chance of a Fed rate hike this year than they are a rate cut. ...

There is a 60.4% chance the Fed will to move toward higher rates by October, based on Bloomberg data Published: March 20, 2026 at 12:33 p.m. ET Share Resize Stocks and bonds struggle as traders see chances of Fed rate hike soar above 50% — up sharply from earlier this week - MarketWatch Traders are contemplating the growing chances that the Federal Reserve will start hiking interest rates this year. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images Market Snapshot Stocks and bonds struggle as traders see chances of Fed rat ...

Key Takeaways Financial markets are now pricing in a greater probability that the Fed's next move will be a rate hike rather than a cut. The Iran war has driven up energy prices, putting pressure on the Fed to stamp down inflation with higher interest rates. The Fed also has reason to go the opposite way and lower rates to boost the economy with cheaper loans and prevent the job market from collapsing. The Iran war has turned the outlook for borrowing costs on its head. For the first time in ye ...

Group 1 - Higher crude oil prices are acceptable in the short term, but prolonged high prices may lead to supply disruptions due to infrastructure damage, particularly from Iranian missile attacks [1][2] - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transport, accounts for about 20% of global oil production and its closure could lead to a prolonged oil shortage [2] - Elevated oil prices are inflationary, impacting the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, with market expectations leaning towards at least two rate cuts this year [3][4] Group 2 - The rise in oil prices is driving the U.S. Dollar higher, as fears of inflation and potential rate hikes by the Fed create volatility for dollar short-sellers [4] - If conditions in the Middle East improve, the dollar may retreat, but worsening conditions could lead to a further 10% increase in the dollar's value [4]