Scott Bessent is deluding himself if he thinks stablecoins will plug the US deficit by increasing demand for Treasuries, argues @PaulJDavies (via @opinion) https://t.co/3E722C7VvT ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the US labor market and global growth, indicating a potential step-down in real GDP growth for the US from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that US employment growth is moderating faster than expected, signaling downside risks to the labor market [2]. - It anticipates a rise in core goods inflation, projecting the core CPI inflation rate for July to reach 3.04% year-over-year [2]. - Global growth is expected to decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.6% in 2025, influenced by tariff shocks and restrictive trade policies [7]. Economic Forecasts - The report provides GDP growth forecasts for various regions, with the US projected at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, while the Euro Area is also expected to grow at 1.0% in 2025 [8]. - Inflation rates are forecasted to be 3.0% for the US in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, while the Euro Area is expected to see inflation rates of 2.1% and 1.8% respectively [8]. Equity Market Outlook - The report suggests a preference for quality cyclical stocks and large-cap defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations in the US market [5]. - In Europe, it recommends focusing on resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Fixed Income and Currency Strategy - The report indicates an overweight position in core fixed income and a cautious stance on other fixed income assets, anticipating Treasury yields to remain range-bound until late 2025 [3][13]. - The US dollar is expected to face pressure, with the DXY projected to fall 9% to 91 by mid-2026 due to rising policy uncertainty and increased FX-hedging ratios [13]. Commodity Insights - The report notes that oil prices are expected to face downside risks due to a projected surplus, with Brent prices likely not falling below $60 per barrel [15]. - European gas and global LNG prices are anticipated to remain range-bound, although there may be marginal upside due to rising competition for available LNG [16]. - The report favors gold and silver amidst further USD weakness and rising inflation [17].

Whatever your balance, make sure your money is working hard for you. This week’s best low-risk accounts include savings, CDs, and Treasuries—some paying up to 5%. https://t.co/t9l2XgibzZ ...

No matter your balance, make sure your cash is working for you. This week’s best low-risk accounts include savings, CDs, and Treasuries—some paying up to 5%. https://t.co/kkYOkVhlNb ...

Group 1 - Recent trends in Treasury yields have been influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates starting in September 2024, leading to a decrease in Fed funds and money market yields [1] - Long-dated Treasury bonds have been a focal point in the current financial landscape, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Group 2 - Binary Tree Analytics (BTA) specializes in providing transparency and analytics for capital market instruments, focusing on Closed-End Funds (CEFs), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and Special Situations [1] - BTA aims to deliver high annualized returns with a low volatility profile, leveraging over 20 years of investment experience [1]

Cryptocurrency Market - Microstrategy ($MSTR) sets the standard for treasuries [1] - BMNR aims to become the Microstrategy of Ethereum ($ETH) [1] Company Strategy - Michael Saylor is mentioned in relation to Microstrategy ($MSTR) [1]

Market Risk - Deutsche Bank AG strategist suggests President Trump's potential dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell is a major and underpriced risk [1] - The strategist anticipates this action could trigger a selloff in the US dollar and Treasuries [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, emphasizing a focus on quality assets [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a global growth slowdown, forecasting a decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with the US experiencing a drop in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026 [1][7]. - The impact of tariffs is highlighted as a structural shock to the global trading order, affecting demand and supply across various economies, particularly in the US and China [1][7]. - Despite the anticipated slowdown, the report suggests that risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to less severe growth expectations [2][3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with the US at 1.0%, Euro Area at 0.8%, Japan at 0.3%, and Emerging Markets (EM) at 3.8% [8]. - Inflation rates are expected to be 2.1% globally and 3.0% in the US for 2025, with a gradual decline in subsequent years [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [5]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, while in Europe, the report recommends a shift towards resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging Markets are recommended to focus on financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Market Valuations - The report provides specific price targets and P/E ratios for major indices, including S&P 500 at 6,500 with a P/E of 21.5x, MSCI Europe at 2,250 with a P/E of 15.2x, and MSCI EM at 1,200 with a P/E of 12.5x [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, while recommending a focus on quality assets [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural shock to the global trading order due to the broad imposition of tariffs by the US, which is expected to weigh on growth but not lead to a global recession [2]. - US real GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with global growth expected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][9]. - The report suggests that while global growth is slowing, risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to lower growth expectations [3]. Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience a step-down in growth, with inflation projected to peak in Q3 2025 [2][8]. - The report anticipates a decline in global demand due to tariffs, impacting exports and investment in the euro area and China [8]. - Japan's nominal GDP reflation remains intact, but the global slowdown is expected to affect its exports and investment [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with less leverage and cheaper valuations [6]. - Key sectors recommended for Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, while in emerging markets, the focus is on financials and domestic businesses [6]. - The report advises against cyclical exporters in Japan due to anticipated JPY appreciation [6]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for major indices, with the S&P 500 expected to reach a price target of 6,500 by June 2026, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - The MSCI Europe index is projected to have a modest growth of 2.2% year-over-year, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index is expected to grow by 10% [7]. Monetary Policy Expectations - The report expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 175 basis points in 2026, with Treasury yields projected to reach 4.00% by the end of 2025 [14][19]. - The European Central Bank and Bank of England are also expected to implement rate cuts, with the ECB delivering 75 basis points and the BoE 100 basis points by year-end [14][19]. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are subject to geopolitical uncertainties, with potential scenarios ranging from minimal disruption to significant price increases depending on developments in the Middle East [16]. - European gas prices are expected to rise due to a strong demand for LNG imports to meet storage targets [17]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven interest amid growth concerns [17].

U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Treasury Market - The U.S. faces an unsustainable fiscal path, with the interest expense becoming untenable due to high budget deficits and sticky interest rates [1][4] - The average coupon on Treasuries has risen from below 2% to pushing 4%, creating a building problem as trillions of bonds mature and are re-issued at higher rates, a difference of 400 basis points [4][5][6] - The long-term Treasury bond is no longer behaving as a legitimate flight to quality asset, and is not responding to lower interest rates or an inflation rate around 25%, with potential for it to go higher [6][7] - The U.S national debt is approaching $37 trillion, requiring creative solutions, and markets are starting to acknowledge this [7][8] Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - A paradigm shift is occurring where money is no longer flowing into the United States, and the long bond is not acting as a flight to quality asset, with gold emerging as an alternative [16] - The dollar is falling, and some of the $25 trillion net investment position that flowed into the U.S over the past two decades could potentially flow out, suggesting increased allocations to non-dollar investments [9][10] - The market environment feels similar to 1999 (dot-com bubble) and 2006/2007 (pre-credit crisis), with AI enthusiasm mirroring the dot-com boom [21][22] - A great buying opportunity is anticipated, but the timing is uncertain [21] Private Credit and Alternative Investments - There is overinvestment in private credit, and the excess reward is not as attractive as it once was, potentially leading to forced selling [32] - Gold has proven to be a source of growth, outperforming Bitcoin year-to-date, and is recommended as an asset class, with central banks accumulating gold [16][17][50] - Dollar-based investors should consider investing in foreign currencies and selective emerging market equities, as the S&P 500 is underperforming MSCI Europe year-to-date [51][52] Restructuring and Long-Term Themes - There is a need to restructure various aspects of the system, including institutions, political parties, and finances, due to wealth inequality and calcified property relations [42][46] - India is highlighted as a long-term investment theme, with a similar profile to China 35 years ago, benefiting from demographic outlook, supply chain shifts, and technology [48][49]