The asset once expected to “go to the moon” is struggling to keep pace with Treasuries. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% from its 2025 peak, lagging behind everything from tech stocks to T-bills. Once promoted as a high-growth play, an inflation hedge, and a portfolio diversifier, the world’s largest cryptocurrency now faces the prospect of ending the year in the red — without fulfilling any of those roles. Most Read from Bloomberg Gold — often dismissed by Bitcoin believers as outdated — is easily outper ...

Core Insights - U.S. regulators have reached an agreement to ease capital requirements for banks, potentially enabling them to hold more Treasuries [1] Group 1 - The easing of capital requirements is expected to provide banks with greater flexibility in managing their Treasury holdings [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an equal-weight rating on equities, overweight in core fixed income, and underweight in other fixed income [4][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with four consecutive 25 basis point cuts anticipated through January 2026, leading to a terminal rate of 2.875% [2][20]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a focus on improving expectations despite ongoing trade tensions and global slowdown risks, with a preference for quality assets [3][4]. - The report highlights a constructive outlook on USD assets, while cautioning about potential pressures on the dollar due to rising policy uncertainty [4]. Economic Outlook - In the US, real GDP growth showed a recovery in Q2 2025, but domestic demand has slowed, averaging 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in the first half of the year [8]. - The Euro area experienced stable GDP growth in the first half of 2025, with PMIs indicating continued firmness [9]. - Japan's nominal growth remains positive, supported by resilient manufacturing sentiment, while China's GDP growth is expected to soften in the second half of the year due to reduced stimulus [9]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclical stocks and those with high operational efficiency, while in Japan, it recommends companies benefiting from domestic reflation and defense spending [6]. - Key sectors in Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, with a focus on resilient market pockets [6]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and domestic-focused businesses over exporters [6]. Earnings Forecasts - The S&P 500 is projected to have an EPS of 259 for 2025, increasing to 283 in 2026, reflecting a 7% and 9% year-on-year growth respectively [7]. - The MSCI Europe index is expected to see a slight decline in EPS for 2025, with a forecast of 138, but a modest increase to 141 in 2026 [7]. - Emerging markets are projected to have an EPS growth of 6% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, with a forecast of 84 and 92 respectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic climate is marked by unusual signs that indicate instability, affecting investment strategies and market behavior [1][3][5]. Economic Warning Signs - The markets are not behaving as expected; typically, when markets decline, investors seek safety by selling stocks, but this can lead to further losses [3][4]. - Instead of the usual trend where bond prices rise and interest rates fall during downturns, both bond prices and interest rates have been increasing, which is atypical and concerning [5]. - The U.S. dollar has weakened, indicating a potential loss of confidence from foreign investors, who may prefer to invest elsewhere [6]. Investment Strategies - In light of economic uncertainty, the recommended strategy is to invest in dividend-paying stocks rather than treasuries, as many dividends currently offer higher returns than treasury interest rates [7].

分组1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The discussion around the Federal Reserve's rate cuts is seen as a significant factor influencing market movements, with a shift from a 95% probability of a December cut to about 70% after recent comments from JP Powell [2][4][5] - Powell's remarks indicate that the decision for a December cut is not predetermined, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [3][5] - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) is perceived similarly to a potential rate cut, although the simultaneous occurrence of QT and rate cuts is unusual [6][7] 分组2: Consumer Behavior and Market Outlook - Consumer sentiment remains weak, yet spending continues, with real wages showing positive growth since June 2023, indicating resilience in the upper-end consumer market [11] - Investment opportunities may lie in companies that cater to the upper-end consumer while offering value, such as premium appliance brands [11][12] - The market is trading close to all-time highs, prompting discussions on where to allocate new investments for potential upside [10] 分组3: Gold and Safe Havens - The recent trade deal between the US and China may reduce the momentum of the gold rally, with opinions suggesting a more cautious outlook on gold prices [13][14] - A hawkish stance from the Fed could negatively impact gold prices and strengthen the dollar, affecting safe-haven investments [14] - In the bond market, there is still perceived value across the curve, particularly in municipal bonds, which are seen as attractive compared to corporate bonds [15][16]

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Core Insights - Real estate can provide steady income for retirees, but it also comes with unpredictable costs and potential burdens [1][3] - Financial expert Suze Orman emphasizes that many retirees overestimate the reliability of rental income [3][4] Group 1: Listener's Situation - A retiree named Susan plans to sell a rental property for approximately $300,000 after taxes, seeking to replace $1,100 in monthly rental income [2] - Susan and her husband rely on Social Security, a pension, and rental income from three properties [2] Group 2: Orman's Advice on Real Estate - Orman warns that unexpected expenses, such as repairs, can significantly reduce net rental income, potentially leading to a deficit [4] - She advises retirees not to assume rental income is guaranteed and to consider selling properties if necessary [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Income Generation - Orman suggests fixed income options like Treasuries, municipal bonds, and CDs, which could yield around 4% to 5%, sufficient to match Susan's monthly income needs [5] - A growth and income mix, including utility stocks, dividend-paying ETFs, or real estate investment trusts, could provide 3% to 4% yields with potential for long-term appreciation [5] - Immediate annuities could offer $1,400 to $1,600 per month on a $300,000 investment, but Orman cautions about the loss of income for surviving spouses upon the annuitant's death [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking after significant gains this year, raising concerns that the rallies may have entered bubble territory [1][10]. Precious Metals Market - Gold fell 2.9% to $4,004.26 per ounce, marking its largest intraday decline in over a dozen years, while silver dropped more than 2% to around $47.6 after a previous 7.1% fall [1][10]. - Analysts suggest that the selloff was triggered by substantial positioning in gold and silver futures, which had built up prior to the declines [6][10]. - Despite the pullback, long-term drivers such as central bank buying and expectations of monetary easing are expected to support prices [6][10]. Stock Market Dynamics - Global macro hedge funds and long-only strategies maintain the highest stock exposure in over a year, despite recent de-risking amid trade and credit concerns [5][10]. - The US government shutdown has created an economic data vacuum, yet investors view equity drawdowns as opportunities to add risk to their portfolios [5][10]. - The S&P 500 closed little changed, with US share futures edging lower, indicating a mixed sentiment in the stock market [2][10]. Broader Economic Context - A confluence of factors, including positive trade talks between China and the US, a stronger dollar, and the end of a seasonal buying spree in India, contributed to the decline in precious metals [8][10]. - The 30-year Treasury yield reached its lowest since early April, reflecting the impact of the ongoing US government shutdown [6][10]. - Oil prices rose following comments from President Trump regarding India's oil purchases from Russia and a decline in US inventories [7][10].

Core Insights - A cooling job market and the potential U.S. government shutdown are driving investors towards the safety of Treasuries [1] Group 1: Job Market - The job market is showing signs of cooling, which is influencing investor behavior [1] Group 2: Government Shutdown - The looming U.S. government shutdown is contributing to increased demand for Treasuries as a safe investment [1] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors are seeking safety in Treasuries amid economic uncertainties [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has not significantly impacted the bond market, particularly the yield curve, which remains flat without further cuts [4][6][8] - Financial markets are currently pricing in two additional rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, but there is uncertainty regarding the Fed's actual intentions based on recent comments from FOMC members [2][3] - The yield differentials between various Treasury maturities have shown limited movement since the Fed's rate cut, indicating a muted market reaction [6][9] Treasury Yield Curve Analysis - The yield differential between 2 to 10-year Treasuries averaged 55 basis points before the Fed's September meeting and peaked at 62 basis points shortly after, but has since remained virtually unchanged [4][6] - For the long end of the curve, the yield differential between 10-year and 30-year Treasuries averaged 60 basis points leading up to the Fed's rate cut, with minimal changes observed post-cut [5][6] - The overall yield curve has not reacted significantly to the Fed's actions, suggesting that further rate cuts may be necessary for substantial movement [7][8] Credit Spreads - Following the Fed's rate cut, credit spreads for investment-grade bonds increased by only 4 basis points, while high-yield bonds saw a rise of 25 basis points, indicating a limited response to the rate changes [9] - The current low default rates in high-yield bonds suggest that spreads are trading close to historical lows, with minimal changes expected unless there is a significant shift in interest rates [9] Investment Strategy - The company maintains a preference for shorter-maturity bonds over those with longer maturities, as yields are expected to have limited room to fall [10][11] - The fair value for the 10-year Treasury is estimated to be in the range of 4.0% to 4.25%, based on historical averages and current market conditions [10]