Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The 10-year note yield reached 4.11% and the 2-year note yield reached 3.60%, marking their highest levels in nearly three weeks and over a month respectively [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [3][4] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [5][7] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [8] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.17%, the lowest level in over a year [8] Group 3: Historical Context and False Positives - Historical analysis shows a false positive in 1998 where the 10-2 spread went negative without leading to a recession, contrasting with multiple instances before the 2009 recession [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a similar pattern of false positives and negative spreads prior to recessions, with lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks [6]