Underlying US inflation rose in November from a year earlier at the slowest pace since early 2021, according to a report complicated by the federal government shutdown. https://t.co/gVytCTGJ3R ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, with current market-implied probabilities indicating a rate cut above 90% [5][7] - The federal funds rate is projected to range between 3.50% and 3.75% following the anticipated cut [5] - There is uncertainty among Fed members regarding the necessity of further rate cuts in 2026, influenced by upcoming leadership changes and economic conditions post-government shutdown [5][13] Market Reactions - Following the October Fed meeting, market expectations for a December rate cut significantly decreased from 100% to less than 30% [1][2] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index experienced a nearly 9% decline from peak to trough as the likelihood of a rate cut diminished [2] Economic Context - The lack of economic data during the government shutdown contributed to investor confusion regarding the Fed's future actions [2] - The Fed has concluded its pandemic-era policy of balance sheet reduction, which may affect long-term interest rates and the yield curve [13]

According to POLITICO, the U.S. Senate has reached a bipartisan deal to end the seven-week federal government shutdown. Under the agreement, at least eight Democrats will vote “yes” on procedural motions to advance the funding bill, allowing the government to reopen as soon as this week. The deal includes full-year funding for agriculture, veterans affairs, military construction, and Congress, extends other agency funding through Jan. 30, 2026, and reinstates furloughed federal workers with back pay.https:/ ...

Core Insights - CSB Bancorp, Inc. reported a net income of $4,151,000 for Q3 2025, an increase from $3,145,000 in Q3 2024, reflecting strong financial performance [1] - The company experienced a 49% increase in net income for the nine-month period ending September 30, 2025, totaling $11,494,000 compared to $7,693,000 in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - Annualized returns on average common equity (ROE) and average assets (ROA) for Q3 2025 were 13.19% and 1.31%, respectively, up from 11.14% and 1.05% in Q3 2024 [2] - Pre-Provision Net Revenue (PPNR) for the quarter was $5.7 million, a 23% increase from the previous year [2] - Net interest income rose by $1.7 million, or 19%, while noninterest income increased by $57,000, or 3% [2] Economic Context - The U.S. economy grew by approximately 3% in Q3 2025, with inflation remaining around 3% [3] - National unemployment is at about 4.5%, with job growth slowing, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower short-term interest rates [3] - The local economy appears stable, with total loan balances up 10% since the beginning of the year, driven by construction and business investments [3] Credit Quality - Provision for credit loss expense decreased by $199,000 from Q3 2024, as nonperforming loans continued to decline [4] - The allowance for credit losses (ACL) was $8.7 million, or 1.08% of total loans, compared to $7.2 million, or 1.00% a year earlier [5] - Nonperforming loans were $746,000, or 0.09% of total loans, down from $3.4 million, or 0.47% a year ago [14] Loan and Deposit Trends - Loan interest income increased by $1.6 million, or 15%, due to an $80 million volume increase in loans [6] - Average deposit balances rose by $52 million, or 5%, with the average cost of deposits decreasing to 1.34% from 1.48% [15] - Average commercial loan balances increased by $63 million, or 13%, while residential mortgage balances rose by $14 million, or 8% [13] Shareholder Information - Shareholders' equity totaled $125 million as of September 30, 2025, with an average equity to assets ratio of 9.96% [16] - The company declared a third-quarter dividend of $0.41 per share, yielding an annualized rate of 3.3% based on the closing price of $49.50 [17] Company Overview - CSB Bancorp, Inc. is a financial holding company based in Millersburg, Ohio, with approximately $1.2 billion in assets as of September 30, 2025 [18]

Healthcare Premiums - Millions of Americans purchasing their own health insurance are anticipated to face increased premiums next year [1] - The extent of these premium increases is a key point of contention in Congress, contributing to the federal government shutdown [1]

Economic Outlook - The US federal government shutdown occurs amidst an uncertain economic outlook [1] - The shutdown hinders policymakers' ability to navigate the economy effectively [1]