This man bet his life savings in a prediction market wager against Doge. All $342,196. Allan Cole is a 37-year-old tax economist in Washington with a mortgage and a young child.He considered himself a plain vanilla investor until Elon Musk's Department of Government efficiency came roaring into Washington last year. Suddenly, there were people willing to bet that the world's richest man would transform and shrink the federal government. Cole took the opposite position.If federal spending in each quarter of ...

Federal Budget Deficit - The federal budget deficit exceeded $1 trillion in the first five months of fiscal year 2026, although it decreased by $142 billion or 14% compared to the same period in fiscal year 2025 [1] Federal Spending and Revenue - Federal spending reached just over $3.1 trillion, an increase of $64 billion or 2% from the previous year [2] - Federal tax revenue rose by $206 billion or 11%, totaling nearly $2.1 trillion [2] Tax Revenue Sources - The increase in federal tax receipts was primarily due to higher collections from individual income taxes and payroll taxes, which accounted for about two-thirds of the increase [3] - Individual income tax collections increased by $99 billion or 10%, while payroll tax collections rose by $34 billion or 5% [6] Tariff Collections - Customs duties, including tariffs, totaled $144 billion, up $109 billion or 308% from the previous year [6] - Some tariff collections may be refunded due to a Supreme Court ruling on the constitutionality of certain tariffs, which could impact future revenue [7] Corporate Tax Revenue - Corporate income tax collections decreased by $33 billion or 23% due to increased tax deductions from the 2025 reconciliation bill [8] Mandatory Spending Programs - Spending on Social Security increased by $48 billion or 8% to $676 billion, driven by cost-of-living adjustments and expanded eligibility [9] - Medicare spending rose by $34 billion or 9% to $475 billion, attributed to higher enrollment and increased payment rates [10] - Medicaid spending also increased by $22 billion or 8% to $285 billion [11] Interest Expenses - Net interest costs on the national debt totaled $433 billion, an increase of $31 billion or 8% from the previous year, due to a larger national debt and higher interest rates [12] Departmental Spending Changes - Spending on the Department of War rose by $14 billion or 4%, and the Department of Veterans Affairs increased by $11 billion or 7% [13] - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) saw a significant decrease in spending by $20 billion or 74% due to a lack of comparable outlays from the previous year [13] - The Department of Homeland Security experienced a spending decline of $12 billion or 23% due to reduced disaster spending [14]

RT Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie)We’ve spent $8 trillion in the Middle EastThat’s 100 X annual federal spending on roads and bridgesPicture how great our country could be if we’d spent that $ hereImagine how affordable groceries & housing would be if we hadn’t printed all that $https://t.co/cQ6SYZAmsL ...

headquarters, making it a state that is heavily anchored by government spending and the well-paying jobs that often come with it.## 3. New Mexico- $21,481 per residentReceiving approximately $21,481 per capita in federal obligations, New Mexico is a big recipient of national defense and energy research with facilities like Los Alamos National Laboratory and other military installations. Of course, it doesn't hurt that New Mexico has a low cost of living, where retirement income stretches a little bit furthe ...

If the Democrats win the midterms and you end up with a Democrat in the White House in 2028, I think that there's a bigger problem at foot, which is all of the state and local obligations. We've talked about Social Security looks like it's going to run out of money in a few years here. And there's a similar problem at the state and local level.you'll very likely see a federalization of that obligation, meaning that the federal government will step in to bail out or support those state and local governments ...

Government Finance - Federal tax revenues in 1974 were 16.87% of GDP [1] - Federal tax revenues in 2025 are projected to be 17.3% of GDP [1] - Federal spending in 1974 was 17.27% of GDP [1] - Federal spending in 2025 is projected to be 22.8% of GDP [1] Key Issue - Spending growth is identified as the primary fiscal challenge [1] - The assertion that tax revenues were historically higher is refuted [1]

Market Technicals & Supply/Demand - The underperformance was largely driven by technical factors, including uncertainty around tax exemption and pulled-forward supply [1] - Supply wasn't met by enough buyers due to questions around tariffs and concerns around federal spending [2] - A recovery of the technical sell-off has been observed recently [3] - Supply tends to dampen a bit in the fourth quarter, which is constructive for yields [11] Federal Funding & State Budgets - Reduced federal funding is expected under the current administration, impacting state budgets [3] - Medicaid accounts for approximately 60% of state revenues from the federal government, making it a key area of impact [4] - States have limited options: cut coverage or make difficult budget decisions [5] California's Fiscal Situation - California's revenues are more than 50% higher than pre-COVID levels, indicating a spending problem rather than a revenue problem [7] - California is dipping into its reserves despite 20+% equity market gains, which is concerning [7] - A credit downgrade for California is possible as early as this summer [9] - A downgrade would be a notch downgrade from A to single-A, still very strong [8] Investment Strategy - Investments favor local geos and public schools financed by property taxes due to their reliability [9] - The industry expects to achieve the year of carry for 2025 [11]

Big day for Swifties out there. Good morning everybody. I'm Aaron Gilchrist in for Joe and Savannah.And we begin this morning in Washington. The Senate expected to once again vote on a plan to reopen the government on day three of the federal government shutdown, but it's not expected to move forward as both Republicans and Democrats show little signs of budging on their demands. President Trump has described the shutdown as an unprecedented opportunity to make cuts to federal spending.Yesterday, the presid ...

Now, thankfully, President Trump is trying to mitigate the damage as much as possible. His administration is working to limit the harm to the American people. But the longer this goes on, the more pain will be inflicted because it is inevitable when the government shuts down.The sad thing about it is that every single bit of this was entirely avoidable. Democrats could have worked with us in a bi partisan manner to avert this unnecessary and very harmful shutdown, but instead they did something that is rath ...

As we speak here this morning, there are hundreds of thousands of federal workers who are getting their furlow notices. Nearly half of our civilian workforce is being sent home. These are hardworking Americans who work for our federal government.Our troops and our border patrol agents will have to go to work, but they'll be working without pay. Food assistance, veterans benefits, and vital support for women and children are all coming to a halt. Now, thankfully, President Trump is trying to mitigate the dam ...