Given these vulnerabilities, Gundlach recommended investors allocate less to financial assets than typical, suggesting a maximum of 40% in equities (largely non-U.S.) and 25% in fixed income (favoring short-term Treasuries and non-dollar fixed income). He advocated for the remainder to be held in cash and real assets like gold. Gundlach reminded investors that market trends, even when correctly identified, take time to unfold, citing his own experience where being negative on packaged mortgages in 2004 took ...

Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images Private credit has drawn scrutiny recently for the opacity of its pricing and lending standards. Key Takeaways Jeffrey Gundlach, a bond market veteran, predicted private credit would be the cause of the next financial crisis during a recent podcast appearance. Private credit markets have ballooned since banks tightened lending standards in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. A credit market veteran known as the "Bond King" has a warning for Wall Street. “The ...

One thing that you also uh referenced a little bit is the quality of the public corporate credit market is better than it's been historically. It's way better than it was prior to the global financial crisis where you've had all kinds of garbage lending going on. But in recent years, the garbage lending has not gone to the public markets. The garbage lending has gone to these private markets.And private credit has been very popular and is now increasingly been overallocated to by large asset pools. I was at ...

Economic Cycles & Debt - Excessive debt coupled with economic downturns can lead to financial bubbles bursting, forcing countries to choose between defaulting or printing money [1] - Historically, financial crises have been triggered by financial excesses and the costs of wars, as seen with the Dutch, British, and the US [2] - Governments often resort to printing money to manage debt, which devalues the currency and raises inflation [1] Internal Conflict & Political Extremism - Economic hardship, declining living standards, and wealth inequality exacerbate internal conflicts among different groups [3] - Political extremism arises as populism of the left seeks wealth redistribution, while populism of the right aims to preserve wealth [3] - Rising taxes on the wealthy during turbulent times can lead to capital flight, reducing tax revenue and hollowing out the economy [4] Societal Instability & Leadership - Capital flight and turbulent conditions undermine productivity, shrinking the economic pie and intensifying conflicts [5] - Populist leaders emerge, promising order and control, challenging democracy and potentially leading to strong, authoritarian leadership [5]

Shares are holding near record highs across much of the world - but could a repeat of the financial crisis be lurking in private markets? Get the Readout with Julian Harris. https://t.co/GvsBNEW7cd ...

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Group 1: Portfolio Performance - The portfolio did not benefit from the small-cap run due to a lack of companies with earnings, particularly in sectors like uranium and quantum computing, and was negatively impacted by the bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor [1][2] - The portfolio experienced a positive shift when Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a likely path towards lower interest rates [1] Group 2: Bankruptcy Impact - First Brands, an auto-parts company, filed for bankruptcy protection, while Tricolor opted for Chapter 7 liquidation, revealing issues with collateral that may have been fraudulently double-pledged [2] - The bankruptcies have adversely affected the banking sector, especially small regional banks, as the weak economy has led consumers to be more selective in their spending, impacting the auto sector [2] Group 3: Financial Sector Analysis - Fifth Third Bancorp had to write off 100% of a $200 million asset-backed loan to Tricolor, yet reported strong third-quarter results despite this write-off [5] - Concerns exist regarding potential systemic issues in the banking sector, with fears of fraud and lax underwriting standards being highlighted [6][18] Group 4: Credit Cycle and Economic Outlook - The current situation is not expected to lead to a financial crisis similar to 2008, as the banking system is fundamentally sound, and the issues are seen as isolated rather than systemic [10][13] - The performance of major banks has been strong, with robust investment banking and trading results, indicating a potential M&A boom [12] Group 5: Fiscal Stability and Interest Rates - Recent data suggests an improvement in U.S. government finances, with a budget surplus of $198 billion in September 2025, indicating a more sustainable financial path [19] - This fiscal improvement is expected to exert downward pressure on U.S. Treasury rates, potentially lowering the 10-year Treasury rate to around 3.5% by the end of 2026 [19]

RT mert | helius.dev (@0xMert_)it's always good to think of worst-case scenarios for the economy to predict how one might fare in such a casefirst, recall that the banks are scared, even of relatively harmless crypto primitives like stablecoins (which actually give them more control than before)due to the new GENIUS act, stablecoin issuers are *barred* from paying interest or yield to holdersthe reason is because the banking mfers lobbied against it as that would really hurt their business(there are loophol ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Welcome to the latest edition of “ignore the headlines.” Day after day, the stock market seems to exhibit a very short memory. When playing sports and losing a game, that’s a good trait to have. When it relates to what drives markets now, as opposed to what drove them a decade or two ago, that’s a bad habit. It has not cost traders that much yet. But it could. More News from Barchart The biggest banks and brokerage firms kicked off earnings season Tuesday morning. As usual, the big fellas came through w ...