Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals with strong GDP growth and record stock market highs contrasted by weak job reports and rising inflation [1] - President Trump's tariffs are causing concerns regarding their impact on consumer prices, GDP growth, and the labor market [1] GDP Growth and Economic Projections - Tariffs could lead to a GDP growth decline of approximately 0.9 percentage points by 2025, with long-term effects potentially reducing annual real GDP by about 0.6% [3] - A long-run GDP drop of around 6% is projected, along with wage reductions of roughly 5% [3] Inflation and Consumer Prices - Tariffs are expected to raise inflation by about 0.4 percentage points in both 2025 and 2026, reducing household and business purchasing power [4] - Tariffs are described as functioning like taxes, leading to higher business costs that are typically passed on to consumers [4] Labor Market Trends - There is a sustained slowdown in job creation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August 2025 and a decline of 12,000 manufacturing jobs [5] - Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, indicating ongoing job losses in sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and construction [5][6] Financial Market Reactions - Stock markets reacted sharply to the announcement of broad tariffs in April 2025, with significant declines in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [7] Revenue vs. Economic Costs - While tariffs are generating significant federal revenues, economic models suggest that the losses in GDP and wages outweigh these gains [8]