Policymakers think they know where to look for the next shock, but have no visibility on what is lurking in some of the most risky areas of the financial system. https://t.co/qp3ZwO7FtQ ...

Global Economic Growth Projections - Scope Ratings has slightly revised its global growth estimate for 2025 to 3.3% for this year and 3.2% for next year [1] - The Euro area is expected to grow at 1.4% next year, following a 1.5% growth this year, with Germany, France, and Italy projected to grow at 1.0%, 1.0%, and 0.7% respectively [1][2] - The UK economy is forecasted to grow at a moderate rate of 1.0% next year [2] Regional Growth Highlights - Strong recovery in the periphery of Europe is expected, with Ireland at 3.0%, Spain at 2.5%, Portugal at 2.1%, and Greece at 2.0% growth next year [2] - Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Bulgaria, is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2026 after euro accession [2] US and China Growth Outlook - The US growth estimate has been revised to around 2% for this year, with an above-potential growth of 2.4% next year [3] - China is projected to achieve a growth of 4.7% next year after meeting its 5% growth target for this year, aided by easing US-China trade tensions [3] Macro Risk Factors - The balance of medium-run risks for the global economic and credit outlook remains tilted to the downside, influenced by US policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and financial system risks [5][6] - Key risks include elevated valuations across asset classes, protectionist trade policies, intensifying public debt challenges, and heightened geopolitical uncertainties [7]

Risks to Australia’s financial system from overseas are heightened and current geopolitical volatility will remain for some time, according to the nation’s banking regulator https://t.co/gYq8ZROPMI ...