Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is contemplating a potential government bond crisis, primarily due to Europe's fiscal instability making U.S. bonds appear safer in comparison [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year Treasury has decreased from over 4.5% in January to just over 4.1% today, indicating that investors perceive U.S. bonds as less risky [2] - The scrutiny of the U.S. government bond market has intensified this year, influenced by President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which marginally increases the U.S. deficit [1][2] Group 2: European Context - France is viewed as the most likely candidate for a bond crisis, with over 50% of analysts in Deutsche Bank's Q3 survey ranking it as the top risk [3] - The political instability in France, including two government collapses in the past year and the potential for a fifth prime minister in two years, contributes to concerns about its bond market [4] Group 3: Debt Dynamics - France's debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 113%, yet investors remain relatively calm, with French yields trading in line with Italy's and below those of the U.K., U.S., and Norway [5] - Despite weak debt dynamics and a lack of surpluses since 1974, French yields are not significantly out of line with other countries, suggesting a complex perception of risk among investors [5]