Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT)
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RBI likely to retain core components of FIT framework, say sources
BusinessLineยท 2026-01-04 23:30
Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain the core components of the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework, as most economists believe that targeting headline inflation against core inflation with a 2-6 percent retail inflation target has been beneficial for the economy [1] Inflation Tolerance Band - The 2-6 percent inflation tolerance band, introduced in 2016, was already considered low, and it may be reassessed in the next 5-10 years as inflation forecasts improve [2] Policy Clarity - Economists recommend continuing with headline CPI inflation, emphasizing that food inflation, despite being supply-side driven, cannot be ignored due to its correlation with inflation expectations. A 4 percent inflation target is deemed optimal, and narrowing the 2-6 percent band could lead to unnecessarily restrictive monetary policy [3] - The headline target should be retained as it reflects the combined impact of food and core inflation on consumers, particularly for low and middle-income households, where food spending constitutes a significant portion of expenses [4] Continuation of Existing FIT - Continuing with the existing FIT is seen as a logical choice, as it has helped anchor inflation expectations, stabilize core inflation, and guide the policy rate trajectory towards its lower bound [5] Focus on Headline Inflation - The RBI should focus on the headline inflation number rather than sub-components, as controlling overall inflation is essential for central banks. The concept of core inflation should primarily serve to understand inflation dynamics [6] - The current FIT has effectively served India, with inflation generally conforming to the target band and reduced volatility historically. Inflation expectations have remained anchored to the 4 percent target, contributing to lower capital costs in the economy [6]