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FHN vs. BOKF: Which Bank Stock Has Better Upside Potential?
ZACKS· 2025-12-04 17:56
Core Insights - The article compares First Horizon Corporation (FHN) and BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) as two banks with distinct growth strategies, risk management, and customer engagement approaches [1] Group 1: First Horizon Corporation (FHN) - FHN has shown consistent growth in loans and deposits, indicating a strong business model and stable core markets [2] - Management expects continued growth in the commercial and industrial portfolio, mortgage-warehouse activity, and consumer lending demand [2] - Recent quarterly results show loan expansion across key categories and improved deposit strength due to promotional offerings and customer engagement [2] - FHN's net interest income (NII) has been improving, with expectations for further enhancement as loan demand increases and funding costs stabilize [3] - As of September 30, 2025, FHN held $2.1 billion in cash and interest-bearing deposits, with short-term borrowings of $4.3 billion and term borrowings of $1.3 billion [3] - FHN's revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 imply year-over-year growth of 5.6% and 3.2%, respectively, with earnings expected to rise by 18.7% and 6.1% for the same years [10] - FHN's stock has gained 10.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry, which lost 5.4% [12] - FHN trades at a lower forward P/E of 11.69X compared to the industry average of 12.70X, indicating a more attractive valuation [16] - FHN has a dividend yield of 2.64%, having raised its quarterly dividend by 7% in January 2020 [19] Group 2: BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) - BOKF has a balanced outlook with consistent loan and deposit expansion and favorable margin trends [4] - The company targets a year-over-year loan growth of 5-7% for 2025, focusing on diversifying its loan portfolio [4] - BOKF's NII is on an upward trend, expected to reach $1.33–$1.35 billion for 2025, up from $1.2 billion in 2024 [5] - Strategic market expansions, such as entering the San Antonio market and opening an office in Memphis, are enhancing BOKF's growth profile [6] - As of September 30, 2025, BOKF had total debt of $4.2 billion, with cash and equivalents totaling $1.4 billion, indicating a potentially unmanageable debt level [7] - BOKF's revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 suggest year-over-year increases of 6.9% and 5.5%, respectively, with earnings expected to rise by 0.8% and 7.7% [11] - BOKF's stock has lost 1.1% over the past year, contrasting with FHN's performance [12] - BOKF trades at a higher forward P/E of 13.09X, reflecting a premium valuation compared to FHN [16] - BOKF has a dividend yield of 2.16%, having raised its quarterly dividend by 3.6% in October 2024 [19] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - FHN presents a more favorable upside profile due to steadier loan momentum, improving deposit stability, and a clearer runway for NII expansion [21] - BOKF's higher valuation, slower earnings growth outlook, and heavier debt load limit its relative appeal compared to FHN [22] - Both banks currently carry a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [22]