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Palantir Stock Is Up 550% Since Early 2024. History Is Clear About What Happens Next.
The Motley Foolยท 2025-05-08 07:05
Core Insights - Palantir Technologies has seen a remarkable share price increase of 550% since January 2024, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 and the second-best in the Nasdaq-100 during this period [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's financial results have been impressive, with a 39% increase in revenue to $884 million and a 62% rise in non-GAAP earnings to $0.13 per diluted share [9] - The number of customers grew by 39% to 769, and the average existing customer spent 124% more [9] Valuation Concerns - Palantir is currently the most expensive software stock, trading at 64 times 2026 consensus sales, significantly higher than the second-highest, CrowdStrike, at 18 times [3] - The stock's trailing-12-month sales valuation reached 107 times in February and recently rebounded to 100 times [4] - Historical data shows that six software stocks have previously reached a P/S ratio above 100, all of which eventually fell at least 70% [4][5] Market Predictions - Dan Ives predicts Palantir could reach a trillion-dollar market cap in the next two to three years, suggesting a 285% upside from its current market value of $260 billion [10] - However, the median 12-month target price among 27 analysts is $98 per share, indicating an 11% downside from the current price of $110, with the lowest target at $40 per share implying a 64% downside [11] Investment Strategy - It is suggested that prospective investors should wait for a better entry point, while current shareholders may consider holding their shares for at least three to five years due to the unsustainable valuation [12]