Chart of the Week:  National Truckload Index (Linehaul Only) – USA SONAR: NTIL.USA Truckload spot rates excluding the estimated cost of fuel (NTIL) jumped 8% over the two-week period from November 19 to December 4. This increase was slightly sharper than in the previous two years, which saw slower but similarly sized moves around the Thanksgiving holiday. Sharp, sudden rate spikes have been a defining feature of the truckload market this year. While the market was expected to transition into a more balanc ...

Group 1 - The transportation industry is facing significant challenges, with gross impaired loans increasing by 38% to $7.1 billion from Q3 to Q4, indicating a decline in the industry's overall health and capacity [3] - A freight recession has persisted for over three years, impacting the ability of trucking companies to repay loans for equipment purchased during periods of high spot rates [4] - TFI International reported a 24% drop in operating income due to adverse economic conditions in the U.S., highlighting the financial strain on trucking operations [4] Group 2 - BMO's gross impaired loans in transportation reached CA$585 million (approximately $419 million), marking a new peak for the key trucking lender, despite a previous decline of nearly 16% in Q3 [7] - The Chief Risk Officer of BMO expressed optimism about a steady decline in new watch list formations, which may lead to lower impaired balances over time [7] - Economic forecasts suggest a softer environment in Canada during the first half of 2026, but potential improvements in the U.S. economy are anticipated later in the year [5]

Company Overview - CPKC is a relatively new entity, having been formed 2.5 years ago from the merger of two established rail networks, making it the smallest railroad but the only one connecting all three North American nations [3]. Growth and Market Position - Despite facing a freight recession since its inception, CPKC has managed to lead the industry in growth, driven by the creation of new markets and synergies from its operations [3]. - The company emphasizes its growth is not solely dependent on economic conditions but rather on the markets it has developed and the self-help initiatives implemented across various business segments [3].

Core Insights - Daimler is facing a significant decline in revenue and unit sales due to a persistent freight recession, particularly impacting its North American market [3][5]. - The company reported a 33% drop in Q3 revenue, falling to 4 billion euros from 6 billion euros a year ago, and a 39% decrease in unit sales [3][4]. - Full-year sales guidance has been revised down to between 135,000 to 155,000 units, a substantial decrease from 308,000 units in 2024 [3][5]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue decreased to 4 billion euros, reflecting a 33% decline compared to the same quarter last year [3]. - Unit sales in Q3 dropped to 30,225, down 39% from 49,346 units in the same period of 2024 [3]. - Year-to-date Class 8 truck sales reached 200,000, marking a 12% decline year-over-year, with Q3 sales specifically down 20% [4]. Market Conditions - The freight recession is leading to reduced ordering activity and margin pressure in North America, with CFO Eva Scherer noting a "sharp contraction" in the U.S. market [3][5]. - Customer sentiment in North America remains cautious, with a "wait-and-see" attitude prevailing until freight rates improve [4]. - Existing tariffs are negatively impacting profitability, with a "low triple-digit million" euro hit anticipated this year [4]. Production and Strategy - Daimler is actively engaging with the U.S. administration regarding Section 232 tariffs and exploring mitigation measures through its flexible production network [5]. - Despite current market challenges, the existing order backlog is sufficient to meet the revised sales guidance for 2025 [5][6].

Rush Enterprises FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Rush Enterprises (NasdaqGS:RUSH.A) - **Date of Conference**: November 03, 2025 Key Industry Insights Trucking Industry Dynamics - The trucking industry is experiencing a freight recession that has lasted for three years, with Class 8 truck order intake being the worst since 2009 during the April to September period [6][10] - The market is characterized by a significant decline in truckload (TL) business, while less-than-truckload (LTL) business remains stable [9][10] - There is uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs and EPA regulations on truck pricing and demand [10][11] Regulatory Environment - The EPA is expected to maintain NOx emissions standards at 0.35, which could lead to increased costs for OEMs and affect truck pricing [11][12] - The potential for warranty costs to decrease significantly if the EPA regulations remain unchanged, which could alleviate some financial pressure on customers [12][21] Market Segmentation - Rush Enterprises has a diversified business model, with approximately 50% of its Class 8 business being vocational, contrasting with the broader market's 65% over-the-road focus [9] - The refuse truck market is a strong segment for Rush, accounting for about 25% of all garbage trucks sold in the U.S. [43][44] - The construction market has shown variability, with some states performing better than others, particularly California [45][46] Financial Performance and Projections - The company anticipates a challenging fourth quarter and first quarter due to ongoing market uncertainties, but expects a potential uptick in the latter half of the year [10][11] - Projections for truck sales in 2026 suggest a decline, with estimates ranging from 167,000 to 220,000 units, indicating a tough market environment [10][11] Parts and Service Business - Parts and service contribute over 60% of Rush's gross profit, with expectations for this segment to remain flat due to reduced miles driven by customers [97][102] - The company is focusing on expanding its mobile maintenance and repair services, although it has not met its targets for mobile tech deployment [58][59] Strategic Considerations - Rush Enterprises is exploring M&A opportunities to expand its dealership network, particularly for PACCAR brands, but faces limitations due to franchise agreements [70][80] - The company is actively involved in the used truck market, leveraging opportunities from bankruptcies in the trucking sector to acquire inventory [39] Conclusion - Rush Enterprises is navigating a challenging trucking market characterized by regulatory uncertainties, a freight recession, and shifting customer demands. The company's diversified business model, particularly in vocational markets, positions it to weather these challenges while focusing on expanding its parts and service offerings.

Core Insights - Long-term contract rates for dry van truckload transportation have remained stable, increasing only about 1% since July 2024, while short-term spot rates have risen approximately 4% over the same period [1][2] - Despite seasonal pressures expected during the holiday shipping season, demand remains weak, and there is little evidence to suggest a significant increase in contract rates [2][3] - The freight recession has lasted longer than any in modern history, with capacity exiting the market faster than demand is declining, which is unprecedented [3][4] Rate Dynamics - Spot rates have been rising since 2023 but remain largely unprofitable, while contract rates are near the lowest sustainable levels for most carriers [4][5] - The average operating costs for carriers have increased by 33% from 2019 to 2024, while the contract rate index is only 16% higher than its 2019 level, indicating that operating costs have risen at a faster rate than what the market is willing to pay [5] Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory actions targeting non-domiciled and undocumented drivers have intensified, with plans to crack down on "CDL mills" and the fleets that utilize them [6] - Increased regulatory pressure has begun to affect the rate environment, with spot rates spiking unseasonably in early October due to reports of immigrant drivers avoiding the roads amid heightened enforcement [6]

America has a shortage of truck drivers. That shortage has not improved the economics of the trucking business. Available trucks significantly outnumber available drivers. Before the Covid pandemic, Americans never thought about the supply chain. Grocery stores and other retailers simply had everything you wanted or needed nearly all the time. Yes, there might be shortages during a major storm or some other unpredictable crisis, but those were easily explainable and understandable. The end of Cov ...

Core Insights - Ryder System reported total revenue of $3.17 billion, showing a slight increase from $3.168 billion a year ago, while non-GAAP earnings per share rose to $3.57 from $3.44 [1] Revenue Performance - Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS) experienced a 10% decline in revenue to $570 million, reflecting challenges in the trucking market [2] - DTS revenue decreased sequentially from $606 million in the second quarter, which was down from $635 million in the same quarter of 2024 [3] - Fleet Management Solutions saw a minor revenue drop of $5 million year-on-year, but earnings before taxes increased by 11% to $146 million [5] - Supply Chain Solutions achieved the highest revenue growth among the divisions, with a 5% increase to $1.38 billion, although earnings before taxes fell by 8% to $86 million [6] Operational Insights - Ryder's CEO noted that benefits from strong operating performance and acquisition synergies in DTS were offset by fleet reductions due to weaker freight market conditions [4] - Used vehicle pricing for tractors and trucks decreased by 6% and 15%, respectively, compared to the second quarter of 2024, although tractor pricing remained unchanged sequentially and truck pricing increased by 7% [7] Cost Management - Fuel expenses decreased significantly from $116 million a year ago to $94 million in the second quarter of 2025, providing a positive impact on Ryder's financials [8] - The company adjusted its fiscal non-GAAP EPS forecast to a range of $12.85-$13.05, slightly down from the previous range of $12.85-$13.30, while most other forecast numbers remained unchanged [8]

Core Insights - Truckstop.com has launched the first load board exclusively for dry vans, aimed at providing affordable solutions for owner-operators and small fleets during the freight recession [1][2] - The platform offers a subscription model starting at $35 per month for unlimited searches, granting access to verified loads and real-time market data [1] - The load board is available in two tiers: Basic and Pro, with the Pro version offering advanced features such as same-day rate data and load alert notifications [2][3] Product Features - The Basic version includes access to private loads, data on load popularity, truck count by state, broker factorability data, a routes map, and Canadian loads [2] - The Pro version enhances the offering with SONAR insights, real-time live loads, load comparison tools, a rate-per-mile heat map, multi-trip search capability, and mobile load alerts [3] - Integration of SONAR rate intelligence provides small carriers with visibility advantages similar to larger companies, helping them compete effectively in the volatile freight market [4] Company Background - Truckstop.com has been in business for 30 years, partnering with carriers, brokers, and shippers to create innovative solutions across the freight lifecycle [4]

Core Insights - Triumph Capital's CEO Aaron Graft highlighted unexpected strength in factoring data for owner operators amidst a freight recession [1][2] - Government actions may tighten trucking capacity, potentially marking an "inflection point" in the market [2] Factoring Data - The average transportation invoice factored by Triumph in Q3 was $1,690, an increase of $27 from Q2, influenced by rising diesel prices [3] - The average factoring invoice price for fleet customers was $1,817, down $92 year-over-year, while owner operator invoices rose by $16 to $1,317 [4] Owner Operator Resilience - Owner operators are surviving due to lower fixed operating costs and greater flexibility, allowing them to adapt to unfavorable freight rates [4] - The ability to switch to alternative income sources, such as driving for Uber, enables owner operators to remain active in the market longer than anticipated [4]