Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and a decline in active US oil rigs, which suggests a potential decrease in crude production in the near term [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil closed up by $0.51 (+0.91%) and January RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0069 (+0.41%) on Friday [1]. - Crude oil prices are supported by heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia, alongside a stock market rally that boosts optimism about energy demand [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Baker Hughes weekly report indicated that active US oil rigs fell to a 4.25-year low, which is expected to lead to lower crude production [2]. - A bearish global supply outlook continues to limit the upside potential for crude prices, with the crude crack spread falling to a 6-month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of geopolitical tensions, including a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela and potential increased sanctions on Russian energy exports, is supportive of crude prices [4]. - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers have exacerbated fuel shortages in Russia, limiting its crude export capabilities and lowering global oil supplies [6].

Group 1 - Ukraine attacked the Kirishi oil refinery, known as Kinef, in Russia's Leningrad region, marking the second strike in a month as part of its strategy to pressure Russian energy facilities [1][3] - Kinef, owned by Surgutneftegas, has an annual processing capacity exceeding 20 million tons and is located approximately 100 kilometers southeast of St. Petersburg [2] - The refinery was previously attacked on September 14, which halted a primary processing unit with a capacity of around 150,000 barrels per day, with repair work expected to take about a month [3] Group 2 - Ukraine has intensified assaults on Russian refineries since August, targeting at least 15 refineries in the European part of Russia, leading to a reduction in Russian refinery runs to below 5 million barrels a day [3] - The attacks have resulted in a fuel crunch in Russia, prompting the government to impose a ban on diesel exports for resellers until the end of the year and extend a full ban on gasoline sales abroad until the end of 2025 [4] - Kinef is a key supplier for both the domestic market and exports, and Russia's ability to divert crude to the global market is diminishing due to these ongoing attacks [4]