Fox Business Alert. We got new inflation data out today showing that inflation is stubbornly sticky and that's slamming the brakes on investors hopes for an early summer rate cut. So, let me show you.Exactly one week ago, the market was pricing in a 66% chance of a rate cut in June. On Tuesday, that number jumped to 70%. But now, a reality check for investors betting on more Fed easing.That drop signals that uh the Fed is laser focused on personal consumption expenditure. The price index which heated up to ...

The eurozone continues to hold up better than expected in the face of repeated tariff shocks and subdued international demand for its exports. - joel saget/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Private-sector activity in the U.S. slowed in February as tariffs drove costs higher for firms, while Europe expanded at a stronger pace than anticipated as a rebound in industry signaled resilience against lingering headwinds. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI—based on a survey of around 650 manufacturers and 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy grew at a subpar annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly impacted by a record 43-day federal shutdown that led to a substantial decrease in government spending [1] Economic Performance - The annual growth rate of 1.4% in Q4 2025 indicates a sluggish economic performance compared to historical standards [1] - The federal shutdown lasting 43 days is noted as a record, highlighting the severity of the disruption to government operations and spending [1] Government Spending Impact - The shutdown resulted in a significant decline in government spending, which is a critical component of overall economic activity [1]

Economic Growth Expectations - The consensus view anticipates GDP growth, but a lower expectation of 2.6% growth for Q4 is noted, influenced by a long government shutdown expected to reduce topline growth by 1.5% [2][3] - There is a risk of GDP growth falling below the long-term trend of 1.8%, necessitating close monitoring of the composition of GDP growth [3] Inflation Insights - The PCE price index is projected to show core inflation around 2.9%, with a risk of exceeding 3%, indicating a shift in economic conditions if 3% becomes the effective inflation target [4][6] - Higher interest rates are anticipated as fixed income investors prioritize capital preservation, influenced by expectations of economic acceleration [6] Market Sentiment and Risks - The bond market reflects risk aversion, with concerns about the structural transformation of the economy due to artificial intelligence, which may disrupt various sectors [9][10] - Current market conditions emphasize risk mitigation and a more introspective approach to capital management, influenced by geopolitical issues and economic data releases [11] Consumer Behavior and Investment - Strong consumer spending is expected during the holiday season, but a detailed breakdown is necessary to identify the driving factors [12][13] - AI-driven capital expenditures in software and equipment are anticipated to contribute positively to economic performance, despite potential government sector drag [13][14]

US stock futures slid on Friday as investors digested economic data that showed US economic growth cooling in the fourth quarter, while the Fed's favored inflation gauge heated up to end last year. Wall Street also kept an eye out for US-Iran tensions, private credit jitters, and a potential Supreme Court tariff decision. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) moved down roughly 0.3%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 0.2%, coming off the end of a three-day winning streak on Thursday. Nasdaq ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, Penske Automotive Group generated $31 billion in revenue, with net income of $935 million and earnings per share of $14.13 [7][8] - Q4 revenue was $7.8 billion, down 4% year-over-year, with EBT of $256 million and net income of $186 million [10][11] - The company repurchased 1.2 million shares for $182 million, representing 1.8% of outstanding shares [9][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive same-store units delivered declined 8%, with used vehicle sales down 4% [10] - Gross profit per unit retailed in Q4 was $4,689, up $47 sequentially, while gross profit per used unit was $1,770, consistent with prior year [10] - In the commercial truck segment, revenue was $725 million, with EBT declining from $45 million to $34 million year-over-year [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. retail automotive same-store new and used unit sales decreased 4%, with new unit sales down 6% and used down 1% [13] - In the U.K., same-store new units delivered were impacted by a 20% decline in sales of German luxury brands [19] - International revenue was $2.8 billion, down 2%, with challenges in the U.K. market due to inflation and consumer affordability [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strategic acquisitions, including Toyota and Lexus dealerships, which are expected to generate $2 billion in annualized revenue [8] - A diversification strategy is emphasized, with a commitment to capital allocation and maintaining a strong balance sheet [24][25] - The company aims to enhance profitability through improved customer experience and operational efficiencies in its Australian market [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, anticipating a recovery in the commercial truck market and a stronger macro environment [28] - The impact of tariffs and macroeconomic conditions on sales was acknowledged, particularly in the U.K. [9][28] - Management noted the importance of adapting to consumer behavior changes, particularly regarding financing for after-sales repairs [90] Other Important Information - The company announced a 21st consecutive increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $1.40 per share [8][25] - Total inventory was $4.8 billion, with a 49-day supply for new vehicles [27] - The company is focusing on cost reductions and operational efficiencies to navigate market challenges [17][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in brand mix and strategic direction - Management confirmed growth in brands like Toyota, Lexus, BMW, and Porsche, particularly in key markets like Florida, Texas, and California [32][34] Question: Earnings cadence for 2026 - Management indicated Q1 will face headwinds due to prior year comparisons, with expectations for a stronger Q2 [36][37] Question: Outlook for parts and service business - The company expects continued strong growth in parts and service, driven by effective labor rates and customer pay opportunities [48][49] Question: Freight market outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the freight market, noting signs of capacity tightening and potential recovery [54] Question: Utilization rates for PTS - Management highlighted the importance of fleet management and the potential for increased profitability as the market recovers [61] Question: M&A market outlook - The company plans to continue strategic acquisitions while maintaining a conservative leverage ratio [65] Question: Used car gross profit dynamics - Management discussed challenges in used car sales and the impact of inventory mix on gross profit per unit [70][72]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates a broadening bull market, shifting focus from mega-cap tech to under-owned small-cap sectors, with a strong conviction in small-cap stocks for the upcoming year [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP is projected to grow at 2.6% for 2026, supporting the transition towards small-cap stocks as a high-conviction strategy [2][8]. - A "run it hot" economy is expected to sustain equity prices, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks due to lower interest rates and increased demand from GDP growth [3][4]. Small-Cap Performance - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF has risen 17% since its November low, outperforming the S&P 500, which only gained 1.9% [6]. - The S&P Small Cap Index is experiencing its best earnings revisions breadth since August (+7%) and strongest EPS growth since 2022 (+10%) [7]. Market Dynamics - The removal of Chairman Jerome Powell and the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who may adopt a more dovish monetary policy, have contributed to a rally in small-cap stocks [5]. - Market breadth is improving, indicating positive momentum across various sectors, which is historically favorable for the stock market [8]. Earnings Momentum - Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth is projected at 13%, with 59% of companies reporting results, indicating a potential for a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth [8]. Valuation Trends - Mega-cap technology's revenue growth expectations are at a multi-decade high of 18%, yet forward P/E ratios have decreased to 27, placing them in the 12th percentile since early 2003 [8].

Market Overview - The US markets are experiencing a mixed picture with the Dow down over 150 points and the S&P 500 slightly down, while the Nasdaq shows a minor bounce [2][4] - The upcoming week is significant for markets with jobs and inflation data expected, which will be closely monitored by investors [8] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors are under pressure, while the technology sector is rebounding [5] - Energy is noted as the best-performing group this year, also seeing a bounce [6] Software and Technology Stocks - Software stocks experienced a sharp sell-off recently but showed a strong rebound, indicating they were deeply oversold [10] - Companies like Oracle and Microsoft are mentioned positively, while others like Adobe and ServiceNow are still under pressure [6][7] Economic Indicators - The market is focused on the January jobs report and inflation data, with expectations of a stabilizing labor market [21][22] - Estimates suggest AI capital expenditure could add approximately 1.5% to GDP growth by 2026, indicating potential economic benefits from AI investments [15] Healthcare Industry - The healthcare sector has faced a $100 billion selloff due to new proposals from the Trump administration aimed at reducing federal funding for health insurers [108] - The expiration of subsidies for ACA plans is expected to lead to an average increase of about $1,000 per year for those purchasing insurance through exchanges, with over a million people already leaving these exchanges [111][112] Women's Sports Investment - Women's sports are seen as a significant financial opportunity, with institutional investment increasing and a focus on building sustainable business models [41][47] - The ecosystem around women's sports is being developed to ensure profitability and support for athletes, with investments in various leagues and related businesses [50][53]

Core Viewpoint - The Nifty PSU Bank index has reached a new high, driven by strong performance from State Bank of India (SBI), which reported better-than-expected earnings for Q3FY26, leading to increased investor demand for public sector banks [1][2]. Performance of Nifty PSU Bank Index - The Nifty PSU Bank index surged 3.6% to a new high of 9,193, surpassing its previous high of 9,175.55 [3]. - Over the past month, the index has outperformed the market with a 7% increase compared to a 0.5% gain in the Nifty 50 [3]. - In the last five months, the PSU Bank index has increased by 34%, while the benchmark index rose by only 3.8% [3]. Individual Stock Performance - SBI shares rose by 7% to reach ₹1,137 during intra-day trading [5]. - Other notable performers included Indian Bank (+4% to ₹904.85), Bank of India (+3.5% to ₹169.38), Bank of Maharashtra (+3% to ₹67.44), and Central Bank of India (+3% to ₹37.95) [5]. SBI's Financial Performance - SBI reported a 25% year-on-year growth in profit after tax, amounting to ₹21,028 crore for Q3FY26, marking its highest-ever quarterly profit [6]. - The bank's net interest income (NII) grew by 9% year-on-year to ₹45,190 crore, with a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.99% [7]. - Loan book growth was reported at 15.6% year-on-year, while deposits increased by 9% year-on-year [7]. Management Guidance and Market Outlook - SBI's management has raised its credit growth guidance for FY26 to 13-15% from the previous 12-14% [8]. - Analysts expect a healthy credit environment, with improved asset quality and benign credit costs [9]. - Brokerages have raised their earnings estimates for SBI, with target prices set at ₹1,300 and ₹1,250, reflecting strong growth and profitability expectations [9][11]. Economic Context - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has noted improving GDP growth and expects urban consumption to remain resilient due to policy measures and infrastructure spending [12]. - The RBI has raised its GDP forecast for FY26 to 7.4% and for Q1FY27/Q2FY27 to 6.9%/7.0% [13].

The US government's move to cut tariffs on Indian goods is likely to benefit several sectors especially gems & jewellery, textiles, and marine products, which faced drop in exports to the US in the first eight months of this fiscal year.Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump announced that US tariffs on Indian goods would be lowered to 18% from 50%. While the US cut a 25% reciprocal tariff to 18%, it removed a 25% penal tariff for India's purchases of Russian oil. The tariffs, imposed l ...