The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes show staff expect real GDP growth through 2027 to align with prior forecasts, while unemployment is projected to exceed the natural rate by end-2025 and remain elevated. Some participants noted that payment stablecoin usage may rise following the GENIUS Act, boosting demand for assets like U.S. Treasuries. https://t.co/nlgD9SBwbP ...

Productivity Growth & Economic Outlook - Productivity surges tend to occur at the beginning of recoveries after recessions [2] - The fact that productivity has held up well during the rolling recession suggests a secular change in productivity growth [2] - The company anticipates productivity growth could reach 5% or more, sustained for a longer period [3] Technological Drivers - New technologies such as robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology, and multiomic sequencing are expected to drive significant productivity gains [3] Correlation of Economic Indicators - GDP growth and productivity growth are typically highly correlated on a year-over-year basis [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the US labor market and global growth, indicating a potential step-down in real GDP growth for the US from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that US employment growth is moderating faster than expected, signaling downside risks to the labor market [2]. - It anticipates a rise in core goods inflation, projecting the core CPI inflation rate for July to reach 3.04% year-over-year [2]. - Global growth is expected to decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.6% in 2025, influenced by tariff shocks and restrictive trade policies [7]. Economic Forecasts - The report provides GDP growth forecasts for various regions, with the US projected at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, while the Euro Area is also expected to grow at 1.0% in 2025 [8]. - Inflation rates are forecasted to be 3.0% for the US in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, while the Euro Area is expected to see inflation rates of 2.1% and 1.8% respectively [8]. Equity Market Outlook - The report suggests a preference for quality cyclical stocks and large-cap defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations in the US market [5]. - In Europe, it recommends focusing on resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Fixed Income and Currency Strategy - The report indicates an overweight position in core fixed income and a cautious stance on other fixed income assets, anticipating Treasury yields to remain range-bound until late 2025 [3][13]. - The US dollar is expected to face pressure, with the DXY projected to fall 9% to 91 by mid-2026 due to rising policy uncertainty and increased FX-hedging ratios [13]. Commodity Insights - The report notes that oil prices are expected to face downside risks due to a projected surplus, with Brent prices likely not falling below $60 per barrel [15]. - European gas and global LNG prices are anticipated to remain range-bound, although there may be marginal upside due to rising competition for available LNG [16]. - The report favors gold and silver amidst further USD weakness and rising inflation [17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economy, specifically the GDP growth outlook for 2025, highlighting the impact of tariffs and consumer behavior on economic performance [2][5][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth Rate**: The GDP grew at an annualized pace of 1.2% in the first half of 2025, which was below initial expectations but aligned with forecasts made in early April due to anticipated tariff increases [2][5]. - **Consumer Spending**: There was a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth, which fell to around 1% in 2025H1, about half of what was expected at the year's start. This was attributed to a rise in the saving rate from 3.5% in December 2024 to 4.5% in June 2025 [9][17]. - **Business Investment**: Contrary to expectations, business investment grew at a 6% pace in 2025H1, although this was adjusted to about 3% after accounting for frontloading of imported technology goods [10][20]. - **Housing Market**: The housing sector experienced a downturn, with residential investment declining by 3% in the first half of the year. The forecast predicts an 8% annualized decline in housing for 2025H2 due to high mortgage rates and poor affordability [12][21]. - **Trade Deficit**: The trade deficit is expected to narrow to 2.4% of GDP by the end of 2025, down from 3.1% at the end of 2024, driven by reduced import demand due to high tariffs [3][26]. Additional Important Insights - **Economic Forecasts**: The GDP is projected to grow at a 1% annualized pace in 2025Q3 and Q4, with flat domestic final sales and contributions from a narrowing trade deficit and inventory accumulation [14][34]. - **Income Growth**: A sharp slowdown in real income growth is anticipated, influenced by the phasing out of government transfer payments and higher tariff-driven inflation [17][20]. - **Investment Trends**: A forecasted 0.6% annualized decline in business investment in 2025H2 is expected, with continued weakness in structures and equipment due to policy uncertainty [20][21]. - **Government Spending**: Total government spending is projected to decline by 0.7% in 2025H2, influenced by cuts in federal spending and a modest offset from new fiscal legislation [29][34]. Conclusion - The overall economic outlook for the US in 2025 indicates a weak growth trajectory, with significant challenges in consumer spending, business investment, and the housing market, compounded by the effects of tariffs and government policy changes [32][34].

Let's bring in our next guest. We're going to talk about trade, tariff agreements, everything that we've been hearing this morning. Roger Altman is the founder and senior chairman of Evercore ISI.And Roger, thanks for coming in this morning. >> Thanks for having me. >> We were just looking at some of the energy stocks with Dom um that are trading up pretty sharply on what Europe is potentially going to be buying in terms of of of energy deals from the United States.But it's not just that. It's also defense ...

Bitcoin Potential - Bitcoin is presented as a $100T+ idea [1] - Bitcoin is suggested as the only thing that works as advertised [1] Economic Critique - The report questions the validity of economic education, suggesting it might be propaganda [1] - GDP growth is questioned as potentially being a lie [1] - Houses are framed as broken savings technology rather than homes [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the performance of the Chinese stock market, specifically the MXCN and CSI300 indices, which gained 3.7% and 1.1% respectively during the week. The Health Care sector outperformed, while Real Estate and Value sectors lagged behind [1][3][8]. Economic Indicators - China's Q2 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-over-year, slightly above market consensus of 5.1% and in line with internal forecasts. The full-year GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 4.7% [1][55]. - Policymakers are expected to discuss economic policies for the second half of the year in the upcoming Politburo meeting, with no significant stimulus anticipated due to robust H1 growth [1]. Sector Performance - Health Care and Growth sectors showed strong performance with increases of 8.6% and 4.7% respectively, while Real Estate and Value sectors saw declines of 4.7% and 2.1% [3][8]. - The forward price-to-earnings ratios for MXCN and CSI300 are 12.1x and 13.4x, with expected EPS growth of 5% for 2025 and 14% for 2026 for MXCN [9]. IPO Market Insights - The report highlights a resurgence in Hong Kong IPOs, with increased participation from global long-term capital as cornerstone investors [10][13]. - The demand-to-offer ratio for Hong Kong IPOs has dropped to a historical low, indicating strong retail investor demand [17]. - Newly listed companies with significant growth potential tend to perform better post-IPO, with average returns of approximately 10% on the first trading day and 40% within three months [20]. Fund Flows and Positioning - Global fund allocation in Chinese equities has recovered, with gross allocation to China increasing to 5.2% as of July 2025, up from 4.5% in January 2025 [30][31]. - Net allocation to China also increased to 7.2%, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment towards Chinese markets [33]. Regulatory Environment - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has urged food delivery companies to engage in rational competition and improve the regulation of promotional activities [1]. - Recent meetings between President Xi and business leaders suggest a potential easing of policies towards private enterprises [50]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the Chinese market appears cautiously optimistic, with strong sector performances in Health Care and Growth, a recovering IPO market, and increasing fund allocations towards Chinese equities. However, challenges remain in the Real Estate sector and regulatory scrutiny continues to shape market dynamics [1][3][10][30].

Investment Rating - The report raises the full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from a previous estimate, indicating a positive outlook despite anticipated slower growth in the second half of the year [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stronger-than-expected real GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, driven by fiscal measures and local government bond issuance [2][3]. - However, a slowdown in growth is expected in the second half of 2025, with projections of 4.5% in the third quarter and 4.2% in the fourth quarter due to weaker exports, fading fiscal impulse, and ongoing deflation [3][11][12]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - The report notes that the net impact of fiscal rollout has been more positive compared to export front-loading, with 85% of Rmb2 trillion in bonds issued in the first half of the year to alleviate local government liquidity stress [2][3]. - The anticipated slowdown in export growth is expected to drag GDP growth by 60-70 basis points in the second half, with a significant impact from earlier export front-loading [3][4]. Fiscal Policy - The fading fiscal impulse is highlighted, as the front-loaded nature of government bond issuance in the first half means less fiscal support in the second half, especially compared to a high base from the previous year [11][12]. - An additional fiscal package is expected in the fall, estimated at Rmb0.5-1 trillion, but this is considered relatively small given the current economic context [11][12]. Deflationary Pressures - The report emphasizes the persistence of deflation, with nominal GDP growth falling to 3.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, indicating weaker corporate earnings and potential impacts on household consumption [12][13]. - The GDP deflator is projected to remain subdued, with expectations of -0.9% year-on-year in the second half of 2025 and -0.7% in 2026, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on near-term growth momentum despite a strong GDP print, suggesting the need for more policy stimulus to boost investment demand and support the labor market [6]. Core Insights - China's 2Q25 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 5.4% growth in 1Q25, but above market consensus of 5.1% [1][8]. - Industrial production (IP) showed a surprising increase to 6.8% in June, driven by resilient export activities, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Retail sales growth moderated to 4.8% in June, lower than the previous month and consensus expectations, indicating potential weakness in domestic demand [4][8]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date, with a significant contraction in property investment at -11.2% year-on-year [5][8]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, with disposable income per capita increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - 2Q25 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with a sequential increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - In the first half of 2025, real GDP growth reached 5.3%, surpassing the annual policy target of "around 5%" [1]. Industrial Production - IP growth rose to 6.8% in June from 5.8% in May, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Growth was observed in 36 out of 41 industries, with notable increases in industrial robots and integrated circuits [3]. Retail Sales - Retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June, down from 6.3% in May, influenced by earlier promotions and subsidy halts [4][8]. - Catering services saw a significant slowdown, with growth dropping to 0.9% year-on-year [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - FAI growth moderated to 2.8% year-to-date, with a single-month growth of only 0.5% year-on-year [5][8]. - Property investment continued to decline sharply, with a contraction of -11.2% year-on-year [5]. Labor Market and Income - The urban unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% in June, with average weekly hours worked at 48.5 [10][11]. - Disposable income per capita reached RMB 9,661 in 2Q, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [11].

Economic Action Pillars - The executive branch is focusing on GDP growth [1] - The executive branch aims to replace structurally impaired entitlement programs [1] - The executive branch is emphasizing new era safe haven assets [1] Safe Haven Assets - The executive branch considers SPY (S&P 500 ETF) as a safe haven asset [1] - The executive branch views US housing as a safe haven asset [1] - The executive branch identifies BTC (Bitcoin) as a safe haven asset [1]