ab Global Research 3 July 2025 China Economic Comment Data Preview: Robust Q2 Growth, More Headwinds Ahead High frequency: better PMIs, weaker home sales, cooler port activities NBS manufacturing PMI edged up by 0.2ppt to 49.7 and Caixin PMI jumped by 2.1ppt to 50.4 in June, with both new orders and production index improving. NBS non- manufacturing PMI edged up by 0.2ppt to 50.5 in June with slightly softer service PMI but stronger construction PMI. 30-city property sales declined further to -10% YoY in Ju ...

V i e w p o i n t | 03 Jul 2025 11:49:54 ET │ 10 pages US Economics Falling imports from China offset elsewhere CITI'S TAKE The trade balance widened moderately in May to -$71.5 billion with a drop in exports and imports essentially flat on the month. Part of the drop in exports was due to gold, which will not impact GDP growth. Net exports are still likely to be a substantial boost to GDP growth in Q2. Imports from China continued to plunge as tariffs in April and half of May were prohibitively high. This ...

ab 3 July 2025 Global Research China Economic Comment Data Preview: Robust Q2 Growth, More Headwinds Ahead High frequency: better PMIs, weaker home sales, cooler port activities NBS manufacturing PMI edged up by 0.2ppt to 49.7 and Caixin PMI jumped by 2.1ppt to 50.4 in June, with both new orders and production index improving. NBS non- manufacturing PMI edged up by 0.2ppt to 50.5 in June with slightly softer service PMI but stronger construction PMI. 30-city property sales declined further to -10% YoY in Ju ...

When you look at trade negotiations right now, could they actually change the outcome of the European economy. Well, I think that there's going to be a very relevant factor. And if you see, for instance, if you watch our our predictions, they are different alternatives, different different scenarios according to the different outcomes that we might have.I hope that, you know, the negotiations will be finalized. So at least this, you know, will deliver a little bit of predictability because now, you know, th ...

Economists use the real economic growth rate to measure how quickly a country's economy is growing. Learn the difference from the nominal GDP growth rate. https://t.co/X6HN8P9Xqp ...

[Music] On June 18th, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its most recent FOMC meeting where they left the Fed funds rate unchanged for the fourth straight time and gave the largely expected comments about continuing to monitor inflation and labor market data amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The chairman mentioned particular uncertainty around the inflationary effects of tariff policy. It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.we're beginning to see ...

V i e w p o i n t | 25 Jun 2025 22:52:28 ET │ 18 pages +852-2501-2754 xiangrong.yu@citi.com Xinyu Ji AC +852-2501-2792 xinyu.ji@citi.com Yuanliu Hu AC +852-2501-2746 yuanliu.hu@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. China Economics 25H2 Outlook: Steady Growth with Divided Structure CITI'S TAKE We upgrade GDP forecast to 5.0%YoY for 2025E while expecting continued deflation. We still hold the view that the 20% fentanyl tariff could be sus ...

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research 20 June 2025 Global Data Watch What not to expect when you are expecting Having expanded at a trend-like pace of 2.4%ar in 1H25, we see global GDP growth downshifting to 1.4%ar in 2H25—its slowest pace in over three years. An inflation rotation is also anticipated as US core CPI inflation accelerates towards a 4%oya pace while Euro area inflation drops to 2%. Against this backdrop, we look for cautious easing by central banks. Softening labor markets should prompt an ...

ab 18 June 2025 Global Research US Economic Perspectives June FOMC: The Fed's new outlook FOMC median policy assumption this year unchanged The FOMC left rates unchanged at their meeting this week but not their projections. In the June Summary of Economic Projections, the median assumption of appropriate policy (the median "dot") for 2025 was left unrevised at 3.9%, below our expectation for a 25 bp upward revision. However, 2026 revised up 25 bp to 3.6%, which was in line with our expectations, and up 25 b ...

I'm pleased to uh bring in uh Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Uh he is um joining us this morning from Washington. Good morning, Governor Waller. Good morning, Steve.Thanks for having me on. Uh thank thanks for joining us. Um I just want to begin um big debate and you can see it in the outlook for rates at the at at uh from the uh summer of economic projections.Where do you stand in this debate right now over how much concern we all should have over coming potential inflation from tariffs. Steve, you know, ...