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Who's Winning the Intense Battle to Rule the White-Hot GLP-1 Drug Market?
The Motley Fool· 2025-11-11 09:25
Market Overview - The global GLP-1 market was valued at approximately $52 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $187 billion by 2032, indicating a compound annual growth rate of nearly 17% [2] - The number of patients in the U.S. starting GLP-1 treatments for non-diabetic purposes has surged by 700% since 2019, highlighting the increasing demand for these drugs [3] Competitive Landscape - Major pharmaceutical companies, including Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and Pfizer, are competing for market share in the expanding GLP-1 market [4] - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, marketed as Wegovy and Ozempic, reported third-quarter sales of approximately $3.1 billion and $4.7 billion, respectively, with year-over-year increases of 18% and 9% [5] - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound, became the world's best-selling drug in the third quarter, achieving year-to-date sales of $24.8 billion [7] Strategic Moves - Pfizer is attempting to enter the weight-loss market by pursuing an acquisition of Metsera, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, for an estimated $4.9 billion [8] - Novo Nordisk has also expressed interest in acquiring Metsera, intensifying the competition for the startup [10] Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk's third-quarter earnings per share were 4.5 Danish krone ($0.70) on revenue of $11.6 billion, falling short of market expectations [11] - The company has revised its 2025 outlook, expecting sales and operating profit growth to be 4 and 6 percentage points lower than previously anticipated [12] - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have secured agreements with the Trump administration to reduce prices for their anti-obesity drugs for Medicare and Medicaid patients, potentially increasing their market access [13][14] Stock Performance - Novo Nordisk's share price has decreased by 46% this year, while Pfizer's stock is down 6%, in contrast to Eli Lilly's stock, which has risen by 21% [16] - Eli Lilly is currently viewed as the most favorable investment option among the three companies due to its rising fortunes and market share [17]