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摩根大通:投资组合经理月报_美国股票主题研究
摩根· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Ratings - The report includes various investment ratings for companies across different sectors, with notable upgrades and downgrades [34][35][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on oil prices, suggesting a risk premium and providing updated valuation metrics for exploration and production companies [2][14]. - E-commerce penetration is projected to rise with approximately 5% sales growth in 2025, favoring companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) [3][19]. - The gaming sector is characterized by high potential rewards despite significant risks, with a preference for regional operators due to macroeconomic uncertainties [4][22]. Summary by Sections Oil & Gas Exploration & Production - The report analyzes valuations at updated strip pricing for 2025-2027, with WTI prices projected at $68.58, $64.79, and $63.72 per barrel for those years, respectively, and an upside scenario of $80 per barrel [14]. - Key valuation metrics include free cash flow yield and EV/EBITDA multiples, with a focus on how these metrics may change under different commodity price scenarios [14]. Retail Sector - The retail sector is expected to see a rebound in e-commerce, with online penetration increasing to 22.6% of core retail sales in 2024, up 85 basis points from the previous year [19]. - Companies like Walmart are enhancing their online presence to capture a larger share of discretionary spending, particularly in general merchandise [19]. - The report identifies several favorite stocks in the retail sector, including AutoZone (AZO) and Walmart (WMT), highlighting their potential for growth [28][29]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is navigating regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic pressures, with a preference for regional operators over digital gaming and Macau stocks [22][23]. - Top picks include PENN, RRR, and CZR, with a focus on their growth potential and market positioning [22][24]. Utilities - The report provides a refreshed analysis of North American utilities, ranking companies based on various metrics and highlighting ETR, CNP, XEL, and SR as leaders in their respective groups [6][32].