The most expensive gas in the US is forcing California's governor to pivot on fossil fuels https://t.co/ejmPcnGV5K ...

Valuation Metrics - Shiller's CAPE is currently at 40x, the highest level since the dot-com bubble, indicating a potentially expensive market [4] - Trailing P/E stands at about 28x, significantly above historical averages, calculated using earnings from the past 12 months [5] - Forward P/E is approximately 22x, also above historical averages, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months [6] - All valuation metrics suggest that the stock market is expensive, implying weak returns in the future [7] Historical Context - In mid-2014, Shiller's CAPE was about 26x, above its long-term average of 17x, suggesting the market was expensive [8] - The realized CAPE at that time was about 17x, indicating the market was not expensive due to healthy earnings growth in subsequent years [9] Macroeconomic Developments - Inflation is rising, with the core PCE price index up 2.9% year-over-year, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [13] - Consumer spending increased by 0.3% month-over-month in August, reaching a record annual rate of $21.11 trillion [14] - Business investment activity improved, with core capex orders rising 0.6% to $76.7 billion in August [15] - Initial unemployment claims fell to 218,000, indicating a historically strong labor market [16] Housing Market Insights - Sales of previously owned homes decreased by 0.2% in August, while new home sales surged 20.5% to an annualized rate of 800,000 units [19][20] - The median existing-home sales price rose 2.0% year-over-year, marking the 26th consecutive month of price increases [20] Economic Outlook - The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, supported by expectations for years of earnings growth [23] - Demand for goods and services remains positive, bolstered by healthy consumer and business balance sheets [24] - Economic growth is normalizing, with major tailwinds like excess job openings fading [25] - There is a disconnect between hard economic data and soft sentiment-oriented data, with tangible activity continuing to grow [26] Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market may outperform the economy in the near term due to positive operating leverage from companies adjusting cost structures [27] - Risks such as political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, and energy price volatility remain present [28]

Trade Policy & International Relations - The US president is increasing tariff pressure on India, a key trading partner, due to their purchases of Russian oil, accusing them of profiteering and funding Russia's war in Ukraine [1] - India criticized the tariff escalation as unjustified, highlighting previous US support for their plan to keep oil flowing globally at a price that would reduce Russia's revenue [2] - The president is demanding investment pledges from various countries and threatening trade partners with high tariffs if they don't provide the money [7] - The imposition of tariffs is viewed as a tax primarily borne by US importers [8][11] Economic Impact & Market Concerns - The president's actions towards India and Brazil suggest a pattern of constant uncertainty and threats regarding trade [12] - Concerns exist that reliance on tariff revenue could create a cycle of dependence [11] - Tariffs are expected to increase prices for consumers on everyday goods like shoes, coffee, and bananas [14] - The uncertainty caused by these trade policies is considered harmful to the economy [13] Alternative Strategies & Policy Debate - A previous strategy involved allowing countries like India to buy Russian oil at a capped price to maintain global oil supply while reducing Russia's revenue [6] - Questions are raised about whether the current administration has a better plan to hurt Russia without raising gas prices globally [7] - The current approach is seen by some as deviating from the principles of open markets and independent central banking that have historically supported the American economy [9][10]

Blockchain Fees & Revenue - Blockchain fees are decreasing towards zero [1] - Gas prices on transactions are declining [1] - Chains like Ethereum, Solana, and Megaeth will need to discover new external revenue streams [1] Industry Adaptation - Blockchain networks must adapt or face potential failure [1]