ASML Holding NV - Key Takeaways from Investor Roadshow Industry Overview - **Company**: ASML Holding NV - **Industry**: European Semiconductors - **Date of Roadshow**: February 27, 2025 - **Location**: Edinburgh Core Points and Arguments 1. **Customer Base Dynamics**: - Increased reliance on TSMC due to challenges faced by other foundry customers. ASML acknowledges that the semiconductor ecosystem becomes more capital efficient with fewer customers operating at scale [3][8] - TSMC's global footprint is expanding with fabs in Arizona, Japan, and joint ventures in Europe, which may lead to more concentrated orders and lumpy bookings for ASML [3][8] - ASML intends to maintain pricing for its tools, focusing on sharing the enhanced value of its products while reducing lithography costs per wafer [3][8] 2. **Chip Architecture Changes**: - Transition to Gate All Around (GAA) architecture is expected to facilitate smaller feature sizes, although initial EUV layer counts will not increase [4][9] - The 6F² architecture for DRAM is projected to increase EUV layer counts from 4-5 layers to 10 layers by the end of the decade, indicating ongoing demand for ASML's technology [9][10] 3. **China Market Outlook**: - Revenue from China is expected to normalize to backlog levels, around the low 20% range, following a significant uplift in 2023 and 2024 [10][8] - High utilization rates at larger Chinese customers suggest ongoing demand, although there is less clarity regarding smaller customers [10][8] - ASML is cautious about local lithography players but does not see an immediate threat [10][8] 4. **Technological Developments**: - Hybrid bonding and potential moves to CFET (from GAA) are seen as opportunities for ASML, with expectations of initial lithography layer plateaus before increases [11][10] - Chiplets (3DIC) are viewed as complementary to existing technologies, allowing for continued scaling on the front end while advancing back-end packaging [11][10] Financial Metrics and Projections - **Market Capitalization**: €277.98 billion - **Revenue Projections**: - 2023: €27.56 billion - 2024e: €28.26 billion - 2025e: €33.01 billion - 2026e: €35.59 billion [6][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: €19.90 - 2024e: €19.24 - 2025e: €25.71 - 2026e: €28.24 [6][8] - **Price Target**: €680.00 based on a mid-cycle P/E multiple of approximately 24x [12][8] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Increased logic and HBM spending, expanding servicing margins, and tech sovereignty programs [14][8] - **Downside Risks**: - Weaker foundry spending, potential slowdowns in DRAM, and inflationary pressures impacting orders [14][8] Additional Insights - ASML's focus on maintaining pricing and enhancing product value is crucial in a competitive landscape, particularly with the evolving dynamics of its customer base and technological advancements [3][8] - The normalization of revenue from China and the strategic emphasis on local solutions highlight the importance of adapting to regional market conditions [10][8]