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Inflation breakeven rates contracting is bullish signal for 2026: Renaissance Macro's deGraaf
CNBC Television· 2025-12-22 21:03
Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - Bullish signals for stocks are emerging, driven by contracting real yields following the latest inflation data [2][3] - Inflation trends are considered more critical than growth trends, with a contraction in inflation potentially setting up a bullish scenario for 2026 [3] - Global metals, including aluminum, steel, copper, gold, silver, and palladium, are experiencing bullish breakouts, indicating potential improvement in global activity [6][7] - Semiconductors remain firm and exhibit leadership within the tech space, presenting investment opportunities [9][10] - The market is bifurcated, presenting opportunities on both bullish and bearish sides across various sectors like discretionary, industrials, tech, and staples [11] Sector Analysis & Performance - Software sector is underperforming, with bearish signals confirmed, suggesting caution towards these names [8][9] - Bitcoin's uptrend is questionable, with a potential shift to a neutral or downtrend, although a year-end rally is anticipated [13][14] Global Economic Activity - Bullish breakouts are observed not only in the US but also in China and Europe, suggesting a global phenomenon [7]