J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research 20 June 2025 Global Data Watch What not to expect when you are expecting Having expanded at a trend-like pace of 2.4%ar in 1H25, we see global GDP growth downshifting to 1.4%ar in 2H25—its slowest pace in over three years. An inflation rotation is also anticipated as US core CPI inflation accelerates towards a 4%oya pace while Euro area inflation drops to 2%. Against this backdrop, we look for cautious easing by central banks. Softening labor markets should prompt an ...

18 May 2025 | 3:06AM EDT Oil Comment: Maintaining Our Cautious Oil Price Forecast as Higher Iran Supply Assumption Offsets Higher GDP Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC n We are maintaining our below-the-forwards Brent/WTI oil price forecasts of $60/56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026 as the price drag from a higher Iran supply assumption and from slightly higher than ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights uncertainty stemming from fluctuations in US trade policy, which has negatively impacted consumer and business sentiment in the US, while global sentiment remains relatively stable but low [1] - Despite the challenges, global retail sales and trade volumes have shown resilience, potentially due to preemptive purchasing ahead of tariff implementations [1] - Labor markets globally remain tight, and global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings indicate expansionary conditions in the first quarter [1] Summary by Sections Global Economic Indicators - US consumer and business sentiment has significantly declined due to rising tariff rates and trade policy uncertainty [1] - Global PMIs have generally remained above the expansion threshold of 50, indicating ongoing growth in manufacturing and services sectors [4][8][9] Retail Sales and Trade Volumes - Global retail sales value and volume have held up well, with year-over-year growth rates of 3.0% for value and 2.7% for volume [26][30] - Trade volumes have also shown positive growth, with a year-over-year increase of 5.7% for global trade [37] Labor Market Conditions - Labor markets are described as tight, with global unemployment rates projected to remain low [42] - Business confidence has seen fluctuations, but overall sentiment remains cautious [42][45] Inflation and Price Indices - Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is reported at 1.5% globally, with core CPI at 3.5% [54][55] - Input prices have shown an upward trend, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the near future [21][22] GDP and Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is projected at 4.6% for the global economy, with developed markets (DM) at 2.9% and emerging markets (EM) at 2.0% [26][30] - The report forecasts continued economic expansion, albeit at a moderated pace due to external uncertainties [41][74]