Core Insights - Sugar prices are declining, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year nearest-futures low due to expectations of robust global sugar supplies [2] - Brazil's sugar production is projected to increase, contributing to a global sugar surplus, which is pressuring prices [2][3] - India's sugar production estimates have also been raised, indicating a potential increase in exports, further impacting sugar prices negatively [4][5] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT [3] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT) [3] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] Group 2: India's Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - The estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India was cut to 3.4 MMT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [4] - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for a bumper sugar crop [5]