Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for Indonesia's trade integration efforts, indicating potential GDP gains through structural reforms and trade liberalization, aiming for high-income status by 2045 [5][12]. Core Insights - Indonesia is pursuing greater trade openness to leverage external demand for economic growth, with a focus on reducing non-tariff barriers and implementing structural reforms to enhance trade integration [5][12]. - The analysis indicates that significant GDP gains can be achieved through unilateral actions to reduce non-tariff barriers, complemented by trade agreements with major partners [5][12]. - Structural reforms in human capital and logistics are essential to further enhance trade integration and reduce trade costs, thereby broadening Indonesia's comparative advantages across sectors [5][12]. Summary by Sections A. Key Policies and Structural Factors Affecting Trade - Indonesia's average tariffs on manufactured goods have declined, but non-tariff barriers remain elevated compared to regional peers, indicating room for further reductions [18][19]. - The impact of non-tariff barriers on trade is substantial, with potential GDP increases of 5% from removing major NTBs [19]. B. Model and Scenario Description - A quantitative trade model is used to assess the implications of deeper trade integration, focusing on reducing non-tariff barriers and enhancing logistics and human capital [33][36]. C. Main Results - The ambitious trade integration scenario could boost Indonesia's real GDP by 4.1% in the medium to long term, primarily through lower non-tariff barriers and improved access to intermediate goods [41][42]. - Unilateral reductions in non-tariff barriers can benefit many sectors, leading to overall GDP increases despite some sectoral reallocations [43][46]. D. Exploiting Complementarities between Trade Integration and Other Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are crucial for achieving high-income status, with key areas including logistics, governance, and human capital development [53][54]. - Trade liberalization can support the development of new comparative advantages, particularly in GVC-linked sectors and modern services [53][54].