Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is facing significant macroeconomic challenges as the Bank of Japan signals a shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy, which could tighten global liquidity and negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Shift - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year, marking a step towards normalization despite potential political and economic challenges [2]. - This shift in Japan's monetary policy could lead to a decrease in liquidity for global risk assets, including Bitcoin, as it unwinds the carry trade that has supported these assets for years [3]. Group 2: Impact on Bitcoin and Risk Assets - Bitcoin's price has dropped nearly 30% from its peak of $126,080 on October 6, currently trading at $87,800, reflecting the pressure from changing macroeconomic conditions [1]. - The normalization of the yen through interest rate hikes could lead to a stronger dollar and increased volatility in equity and crypto markets, as liquidity shifts from abundant to constrained [3][4]. Group 3: Mixed Global Macro Environment - The global macroeconomic landscape is complex, with Japan raising interest rates (negative for crypto) while the US is lowering rates (positive for crypto), creating conflicting influences on the market [5]. - Analysts suggest that these opposing macroeconomic forces may balance out over time, but in the short term, they are likely to contribute to increased volatility in the crypto market [5].