Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased due to optimism regarding a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown, which could boost demand in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, despite concerns over rising global supplies [1] Group 1 - Oil prices rose on Monday, reflecting market sentiment [1] - The potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is seen as a positive factor for oil demand [1] - Concerns about increasing global oil supplies are present but are currently being offset by demand optimism [1]

Group 1: Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices - November WTI crude oil closed down -2.27 (-3.45%) and November RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0471 (-2.37%) due to expectations of increased crude production from OPEC+ [1] - OPEC+ is considering raising its crude output level by +137,000 bpd starting November 1, which is expected to boost global oil supplies [1] - The outlook for higher crude production in Iraq, with a potential addition of 500,000 bpd to global markets, is also bearish for crude prices [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Reduced crude demand from India, with August imports falling -2.9% y/y to 19.6 MMT, negatively impacts oil prices [3] - An increase in crude oil held on stationary tankers rose by +3.7% w/w to 81.95 million bbl, indicating a bearish trend for oil prices [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Concerns over the ongoing war in Ukraine may lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, potentially reducing global oil supplies [4] - Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries have curbed Russian crude exports, tightening global oil supplies, with flows dropping to 1.94 million bpd in early September, the lowest in over 3.25 years [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced modest losses, with November WTI crude oil closing down -0.01 (-0.02%) and November RBOB gasoline down -0.0075 (-0.38%) due to a stronger dollar index and risk-off sentiment in asset markets [1] - Crude prices recovered most losses in the afternoon following supportive geopolitical news and stronger-than-expected US economic data [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The outlook for increased crude production in Iraq is bearish for crude prices, with Iraq set to resume oil exports from the Kurdish region, potentially adding 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global supplies [3] - Concerns over the ongoing war in Ukraine and potential sanctions on Russian energy exports are providing some support for crude prices, as these factors could reduce global oil supplies [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - US economic indicators were better than expected, with Q2 GDP revised upward to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and weekly initial unemployment claims falling by -14,000 to a two-month low of 218,000, indicating a stronger labor market [4] - August core capital goods new orders rose +0.6% month-over-month, suggesting robust capital spending [4]