March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.21 (+1.41%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +5.60 (+1.31%). Sugar prices climbed to 5-week highs today after StoneX cut its Brazil 2026/27 Center-South sugar production estimate to 41.5 MMT from a September estimate of 42.1 MMT. More News from Barchart Sugar also has support from the recent news that India's food ministry said it was considering boosting the price of ethanol used for gasoline blending, which could encourage India's suga ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices exhibited mixed results, with NY sugar reaching a 1.5-week high while London sugar declined, influenced by crude oil price movements [2] Group 1: Sugar Market Trends - NY sugar futures closed up +0.11 (+0.70%), while December London ICE white sugar futures closed down -1.90 (-0.41%) [1] - The recent rise in crude oil prices has led to short covering in sugar futures, as WTI crude reached a 1.75-month high, potentially shifting sugar production towards ethanol [2] Group 2: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - A significant global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) is projected for the 2025/26 season, reversing a previous deficit of -4.7 MMT in 2024/25 [3] - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar, although cumulative output for 2025-26 is down -1.9% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Regional Production Insights - India is expected to divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may lead to increased exports of sugar, exceeding earlier estimates [5] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although this is an improvement from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with NY sugar reaching a 1.5-week high while London sugar is slightly down [2] - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus in the upcoming 2025/26 season, reversing the previous year's deficit [3][6] Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 is up by +0.11 (+0.70%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 is down by -1.20 (-0.26%) [1] - The rise in crude oil prices has led to short covering in sugar futures, benefiting sugar prices indirectly [2] Supply Dynamics - Brazil's sugar output has increased, with a reported rise of +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, contributing to bearish price sentiment [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil has also increased, indicating a shift towards higher sugar production [4] Global Production and Consumption - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, contrasting with a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a global sugar production increase of +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season [6] Regional Insights - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may not alleviate its sugar surplus, leading to increased exports [5] - The cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season has decreased by -1.9% year-on-year, despite the recent increase in production [4]