Core Insights - Sugar prices exhibited mixed results, with NY sugar reaching a 1.5-week high while London sugar declined, influenced by crude oil price movements [2] Group 1: Sugar Market Trends - NY sugar futures closed up +0.11 (+0.70%), while December London ICE white sugar futures closed down -1.90 (-0.41%) [1] - The recent rise in crude oil prices has led to short covering in sugar futures, as WTI crude reached a 1.75-month high, potentially shifting sugar production towards ethanol [2] Group 2: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - A significant global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) is projected for the 2025/26 season, reversing a previous deficit of -4.7 MMT in 2024/25 [3] - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar, although cumulative output for 2025-26 is down -1.9% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Regional Production Insights - India is expected to divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may lead to increased exports of sugar, exceeding earlier estimates [5] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although this is an improvement from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with NY sugar reaching a 1.5-week high while London sugar is slightly down [2] - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus in the upcoming 2025/26 season, reversing the previous year's deficit [3][6] Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 is up by +0.11 (+0.70%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 is down by -1.20 (-0.26%) [1] - The rise in crude oil prices has led to short covering in sugar futures, benefiting sugar prices indirectly [2] Supply Dynamics - Brazil's sugar output has increased, with a reported rise of +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, contributing to bearish price sentiment [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil has also increased, indicating a shift towards higher sugar production [4] Global Production and Consumption - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, contrasting with a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a global sugar production increase of +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season [6] Regional Insights - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may not alleviate its sugar surplus, leading to increased exports [5] - The cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season has decreased by -1.9% year-on-year, despite the recent increase in production [4]