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Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-16 17:57
Core Thesis - Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) is positioned as a premier royalty and streaming company, providing unique exposure to gold while minimizing risks associated with mining operations [2][3] Financial Metrics - As of September 8th, FNV's share price was $197.27, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 47.61 and 34.97 respectively [1] - The company boasts exceptional EBITDA margins of 70–80%, an expense ratio of just 0.1%, and negligible debt [2] Strategic Advantages - FNV offers perpetual call options on gold prices, with 62% of its assets in the exploration phase, indicating potential for significant upside as new discoveries occur [3] - The company benefits from miners' increased reliance on alternative financing in a higher interest rate environment [3] Cobre Panama Mine Catalyst - The Cobre Panama mine, historically accounting for 25–30% of FNV's production, was shut down in late 2023, leading to impairments and stock decline [4] - With the new support from Panama's President Mulino for reopening the mine, and both FNV and First Quantum halting arbitration, the prospects for resolution are improving [4] Economic Incentives - The economic importance of the Cobre Panama mine to Panama's GDP, exports, and employment creates clear incentives for a restart, potentially leading to a 30% re-rating in FNV's stock if operations resume [5] - Even without this upside, FNV is fairly valued at approximately 22x NTM EV/EBITDA, providing uncorrelated exposure to gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability [5] Long-term Investment Perspective - For long-term investors bullish on gold, FNV presents both resilience and significant optionality, making it a compelling core portfolio holding [5][6]