Core Viewpoint - Pierre Lassonde, co-founder of Franco-Nevada, predicts that gold prices will reach $17,250 per ounce within three years, significantly higher than current levels [1][2]. Gold Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly buying gold as an alternative to the U.S. dollar due to budget deficits in major developed countries [2]. - Gold's finite supply is a key attraction, with only 216,265 tonnes mined historically, while demand continues to rise, particularly from central banks [3]. - Lassonde emphasizes that if just 1% of funds from other asset classes were redirected to gold, prices would surge, as only 3,600 tonnes are produced annually, with a third going to central banks [4]. Global Reserve Trends - Gold is being remonetized in global reserves, with central banks and sovereign wealth funds diversifying their investments amid geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - The U.S. dollar's share of global official foreign reserves has decreased from 72% in 2001 to 58% in 2024, indicating a shift towards gold as a store of value [4]. Franco-Nevada's Business Model - Franco-Nevada operates on a royalty model, which was initially met with skepticism but has proven successful, yielding a 36% annualized return from its founding until its acquisition by Newmont in 2002 [13][14]. - The company currently has a market value of approximately $36 billion, reflecting its growth and the competitive landscape in the mining sector [13]. Philanthropic Efforts - Lassonde has made significant contributions to mining education and research, establishing endowed chairs and supporting scholarships, demonstrating a commitment to giving back to the community [16]. - His current project, Fuerte Metals, is seen as a promising venture in the Yukon, reminiscent of earlier successful investments [17].

Summary of Mining Equities Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector Performance**: In 2025, mining equities outperformed equity benchmarks, primarily driven by gold and copper, while ferrous metals and energy remained flat or declined [1][15] - **2026 Outlook**: Expectations for copper, aluminium, and lithium to outperform due to supply constraints and energy transition, with a cautious view on traditional end markets in developed economies [2][15] Key Commodities Insights Copper - **Market Dynamics**: The medium-term outlook for copper remains bullish, with expectations of market tightness in 2026 due to limited growth in global mine output and a deficit in refined output [3][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: Freeport is highlighted as a top pick due to its discounted valuation and expected production recovery at the Grasberg mine [4][23] Aluminium - **Demand vs Supply**: The outlook for aluminium is mixed; while demand holds up, supply constraints are expected, particularly from China and developed markets [5][24] - **Investment Recommendation**: A buy recommendation for Norsk Hydro is reiterated, with expectations of stable operations and potential cash returns [8][24] Gold - **Market Sentiment**: Gold remains a consensus macro trade, with equities delivering strong returns in 2025. However, valuations are less compelling than at the start of the year [9][22] - **Top Picks**: Barrick and Newmont are identified as top picks, with potential for further catalysts in 2026 [10][22] Iron Ore - **Price Forecast**: The medium-term outlook for iron ore is bearish, with prices expected to stabilize around $100/t in the short term and decline to $90/t by 2027 due to increased supply from Simandou [11][20] Coal - **Market Conditions**: Met coal prices have risen above $200/t due to demand and supply disruptions, while thermal coal remains stable at $110/t [12][20] Diversified Miners - **Performance Comparison**: Vale outperformed in the bulks sector, while RIO and BHP performed in line with benchmarks. A preference for RIO over Vale and BHP is noted due to better growth prospects [13][25] Earnings and Price Target Changes - **Adjustments**: Earnings estimates and price targets have been adjusted based on commodity price forecasts, with notable upgrades for copper miners like FCX and KGHM [28][29] Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The report emphasizes a selective investment approach in mining equities, focusing on commodities with strong fundamentals and potential for price gains, particularly copper, aluminium, and gold [2][15][22]

Company Overview - Franco-Nevada Corporation is a Toronto-based company focused on gold royalties and streams, with interests in silver, platinum group metals, oil & gas, and other resource assets [12] - The company has a diversified portfolio of 54 producing assets, including four major cash-flowing assets: Antamina, Antapaccay, Candelaria, and Cobre Panama, along with interests in 41 advanced assets and 223 exploration stage mining properties [12] - Approximately 86% of Franco-Nevada's revenues come from the Americas, with 49% from Latin America, 18% from the United States, and 19% from Canada, while the remaining 14% is generated from other regions [12] Investment Ratings - Franco-Nevada currently holds a 3 (Hold) rating on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B [13] - The company has a Momentum Style Score of A, and its shares have increased by 4.3% over the past four weeks [13] - Four analysts have revised their earnings estimates upwards for fiscal 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate rising by $0.33 to $5.20 per share [13] Performance Metrics - Franco-Nevada has an average earnings surprise of +7.7%, indicating a positive trend in earnings performance [13] - With a solid Zacks Rank and strong Momentum and VGM Style Scores, Franco-Nevada is recommended for investors' consideration [14]

Core Insights - Five stocks have been added to the Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) List, indicating strong potential for investment returns Group 1: Stocks and Earnings Estimates - Newmont Corporation (NEM) has seen a 9.4% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) has experienced an 8.8% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) has seen a significant 71.9% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [2] - Fox Corporation (FOXA) has experienced a 6.8% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [2] - Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) has seen a 5.1% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [3]

Core Insights - Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV) is recognized as one of the best Canadian dividend stocks for long-term investment [1] - TD Securities has reduced its price target for FNV from $247 to $225 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing a shift in investor sentiment and increased market volatility following a gold price decline [2] - In Q3 2025, FNV reported record revenue of $487.7 million, a 77% increase year-over-year, surpassing analysts' expectations by $27 million [3] - The company’s operating cash flow reached $348.0 million, reflecting a 63% increase from the previous year, and it has maintained a debt-free balance sheet [4] Financial Performance - FNV's revenue for Q3 2025 was $487.7 million, marking a 77% growth compared to the same quarter last year [3] - Operating cash flow for the company was $348.0 million, which is a 63% increase from the prior year [4] - The company has increased its dividend annually since its IPO in 2008, achieving 18 consecutive years of growth by 2025 [4] Business Model and Strategy - Franco-Nevada operates as a streaming and royalty company with a focus on gold, holding a diversified portfolio that includes agreements linked to various metals and oil and gas [5] - The company has acquired six significant new gold interests over the past 18 months, enhancing its long-term growth prospects and increasing its revenue exposure to precious metals, which accounted for 85% of total revenue in the quarter [3]

Core Insights - The gold mining sector is experiencing significant price increases, with GDX and GDXJ both doubling in value, while spot gold surpassed $4,000, indicating strong market performance [1][3][10] - Despite the price gains, approximately $5 billion has exited mining ETFs, suggesting that the market is under-owned and that institutional investors are taking profits rather than retail investors fully participating [1][7][45] - Central banks are major players in the gold market, consistently purchasing over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually since 2022, which is double the average of the previous decade, contributing to a structural supply-demand imbalance [11][12][45] Market Dynamics - Gold prices reached historic highs around $4,000 per ounce, with GDX and GDXJ showing year-to-date gains of 115% and 117% respectively, significantly outperforming physical gold [3][17] - The GDX/GLD ratio improved by 40.7% in 2025, indicating a stronger performance of miners relative to gold [5] - Central banks are absorbing 24-29% of annual gold output, while mine supply is only expected to grow by 1%, creating a tight supply situation [13][14] Investment Strategies - A three-tier investment strategy is proposed for retail traders, focusing on core holdings, momentum plays, and premium growth stocks [23][48] - Newmont (NEM) is highlighted as a core holding with a P/E ratio of 13.65x and significant free cash flow potential, while Barrick (B) and Agnico Eagle (AEM) are recommended for momentum and premium growth respectively [24][28][32] - Entry points and stop-loss levels are suggested for each tier to manage risk effectively [27][31][34] Technical Analysis - The technical picture shows that GDX peaked on October 16, 2025, and has since retraced about 9.8%, while GLD has also seen a slight decline [18][19] - Key support levels for GDX are identified around $59.51 and $34.58, which have not been seriously challenged during recent price movements [21] - The current pullback is viewed as a potential opportunity for disciplined buyers rather than a sign of a market breakdown [22][46] Future Outlook - The upcoming December FOMC meeting is a key event to watch, as it may influence central bank behavior regarding gold purchases [47] - The relationship between slow supply growth and steady official demand is expected to persist, providing a favorable environment for gold miners [45][49]

Core Insights - Franco-Nevada Corporation reported record adjusted earnings of $1.43 per share in Q3 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37, with a year-over-year increase of 79% [1][7] - The company achieved record revenues of $488 million in the reported quarter, a surge of 76.9% year over year, primarily driven by high gold prices [2][7] - Adjusted EBITDA rose 62.3% year over year to $427 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 87.6%, up from 85.7% in the prior year [3] Financial Performance - Franco-Nevada sold 138,772 Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs) in Q3 2025, a 26% increase from 110,110 GEOs in the same quarter last year, supported by deliveries from Cobre Panama [3] - The company had $0.24 billion in cash at the end of Q3 2025, down from $1.45 billion at the end of 2024, while operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2025 was $1.07 billion, up from $0.59 billion in the prior-year period [4] - Franco-Nevada remains debt-free and utilizes its free cash flow for portfolio expansion and dividend payments [4] Future Outlook - The company updated its total GEO sales outlook for 2025 to a range of 495,000-525,000, an increase from the previous estimate of 465,000-525,000 [5] Stock Performance - Franco-Nevada's shares have increased by 39.5% over the past year, compared to the industry's growth of 77.9% [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of connecting macroeconomic context with company-level valuation to identify long-term investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy focuses on a deep-value approach combined with a long-term vision, targeting underfollowed or undervalued companies where fundamentals are often overlooked [1] - Established leaders are also considered when new opportunities or structural value emerge [1] Group 2: Market Perspective - Being based in Argentina provides a unique perspective on a complex and dynamic market, allowing for in-depth coverage of local assets while also exploring broader Latin American and global trends [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Franco-Nevada reported record financial results for Q3 2025, with total revenue increasing by 77% to $487.7 million compared to Q3 2024 [12][14] - Adjusted EBITDA also reached a record, up 81% to $427.3 million from $236.2 million in the prior year [12][14] - Total GEOs sold increased by 26% to 138,772, with precious metal GEOs sold rising by 41% to 119,109 [10][12] - Adjusted net income was $275 million, or $1.43 per share, reflecting a 79% increase year-over-year [13][14] - Cash cost per GEO rose to $340 from $290, while margin per GEO increased by 42% to $3,116 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company benefited from strong contributions from key assets such as Cobre Panamá, Guadalupe, and Candelaria, along with recent acquisitions like Western Limb, Yanacocha, Porcupine, and Côté [10][11] - Approximately 11,000 GEOs were delivered from Cobre Panamá, contributing to the overall increase in GEOs sold [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gold prices increased by 40% year-over-year, while silver prices rose by 34% [9] - The company noted a rebound in platinum and palladium prices, while iron ore prices remained flat and oil prices decreased [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for approximately 50% growth in GEOs over the next five years, driven by recent acquisitions and the potential restart of Cobre Panamá [5][6] - Franco-Nevada is focused on maintaining a disciplined approach to acquisitions, emphasizing organic growth alongside new deals [27][28] - The company is exploring opportunities in Australia and remains open to diversifying into other commodities like natural gas and lithium if good value is found [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the resolution of the Cobre Panamá mine closure and the potential for a positive shift in public sentiment towards mining in Panama [5][81] - The company is encouraged by the recent constructive comments from the President of Panama regarding the mine's future [5][81] - Management highlighted the importance of critical minerals and the positive developments in permitting processes for various projects [7][8] Other Important Information - The company reached a settlement with the Canada Revenue Agency regarding tax disputes, which will not require any tax payments on foreign earnings for the specified period [16][17] - Franco-Nevada remains debt-free, with total available capital exceeding $1.8 billion at the end of the quarter [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the commodity focus in the deal pipeline? - Management confirmed that the primary focus remains on precious metals, with good prospects for adding more gold deals, while also being open to diversified opportunities if they present good value [21][24] Question: Will the focus shift more towards organic growth rather than new deals? - Management clarified that while organic growth is strong, there is still a good pipeline for new deals, and they will maintain discipline in acquisitions [27][28] Question: How does the recent gold price environment affect shareholder returns? - Management stated that their priority remains adding quality assets, with plans to increase dividends sustainably, but share buybacks are not currently being considered [35][36] Question: What is the visibility on NPIs and their performance? - Management indicated limited visibility on NPIs, but expressed optimism about their performance in the current high gold price environment [40][41] Question: What are the expectations for Cobre Panamá's restart? - Management is optimistic about the timeline for the restart, citing positive government comments and ongoing preparations [80][81] Question: How does the company view Argentina as a mining jurisdiction? - Management expressed a positive outlook on Argentina, highlighting recent regulatory changes that could attract investment [91][92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Franco-Nevada reported record financial results for Q3 2025, with total revenue increasing by 77% to $487.7 million compared to Q3 2024 [12][16] - Adjusted EBITDA also reached a record, up 81% to $427.3 million from $236.2 million in the prior year [12][16] - Adjusted net income was $275 million, or $1.43 per share, reflecting a 79% increase year-over-year [13][16] - The average gold price increased by 40% year-over-year, while the average silver price rose by 34% [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total GEOs sold increased by 26% to 138,772 in Q3 2025, compared to 110,110 in Q3 2024 [10][12] - Precious metal GEOs sold were 119,109, up 41% from the previous year [10][12] - Approximately 11,000 GEOs were delivered and sold from Cobre Panama, contributing to the strong performance [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 85% of revenue in Q3 2025 was derived from precious metals, with 88% of revenue sourced from the Americas [14][16] - The company experienced a significant increase in natural gas prices year-over-year, while iron ore prices remained flat [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for approximately 50% growth in GEOs over five years compared to last year, supported by recent acquisitions and the potential restart of Cobre Panama [5][6] - Franco-Nevada is focused on maintaining a disciplined approach to acquisitions, emphasizing organic growth alongside new deals [21][27] - The company is exploring opportunities in Australia and remains open to diversifying into other commodities like natural gas and lithium if good value is found [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the resolution of the Cobre Panama mine closure and the potential for a positive shift in public sentiment towards mining in Panama [5][81] - The company is encouraged by the recent performance of its key assets and the overall strong cash flow generation [4][9] - Management highlighted the importance of critical minerals and the positive developments in permitting processes for various projects [7][8] Other Important Information - The company reached a settlement with the Canada Revenue Agency regarding tax disputes for its Mexican and Barbadian subsidiaries, resulting in no tax payment required for foreign earnings during the specified period [16][17] - Franco-Nevada remains debt-free, with total available capital exceeding $1.8 billion as of September 30, 2025 [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the commodity focus in the deal pipeline? - Management indicated that the primary focus remains on precious metals, with good prospects for adding more gold deals, while also being open to diversified opportunities if they present good value [21][24] Question: Will the focus shift more towards organic growth rather than new deals? - Management clarified that while there is strong organic growth potential, the focus will still be on acquiring new deals, maintaining discipline in the current market environment [27] Question: How does the recent gold price environment affect shareholder returns? - Management stated that the priority remains on adding quality assets, with plans to increase dividends sustainably, but share buybacks are not currently being considered [35][36] Question: What is the visibility on mining from different areas into Q4? - Management acknowledged limited visibility but expressed optimism about the performance of Musselwhite and Hemlo under new ownership [40][44] Question: What are the expectations for the restart of Cobre Panama? - Management is optimistic about the timeline for the restart, citing positive government comments and ongoing preparations [80][81] Question: How does the company view Argentina as a mining jurisdiction? - Management expressed a positive outlook on Argentina, highlighting recent regulatory changes that could attract investment [92][93]