Investment Rating - The report maintains a structurally bullish view on gold, projecting a base case price of $3,700 per ounce by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026 [17]. Core Insights - The gold-silver price ratio has broken out of its historical range of 45-80 since 2022, with expectations that silver will not catch up to gold due to increased central bank demand for gold [1][16]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, leading to a structural decoupling of gold and silver prices, with gold being favored over silver due to its scarcity and suitability for reserve management [2][14]. - Despite a boom in China's solar industry supporting silver demand, it has not been sufficient to close the performance gap with gold, especially as solar production slows and recession risks rise [16]. Summary by Sections Gold-Silver Price Ratio - The gold-silver price ratio has persistently traded above the historical range since 2022, driven by structural changes in demand [1][2]. - Central banks' gold purchases have increased fivefold since the freezing of Russian reserves, contributing to the decoupling of gold and silver prices [9][12]. Demand Dynamics - Silver's investment flows are influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty and real rates, but its industrial exposure can lead to underperformance during economic downturns [5][6]. - The report indicates that while silver may benefit from renewed investor interest, it is unlikely to match gold's trajectory due to the lack of central bank support [16][20]. Structural Factors - Gold's physical properties make it more suitable for reserve management compared to silver, which is more abundant and less valuable [14][15]. - Silver lacks the institutional recognition and economic profile that supports gold, making it less suitable as a reserve asset [13][14]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that gold will continue to outperform silver, with strong central bank demand expected to persist into 2025 [16][19]. - In the event of a recession, gold prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching $3,880 by year-end, while silver may also see some upward movement due to correlated flows [18][19].