It's not just gold (GC=F) notching a strong quarter as a potential government shutdown looms. Silver futures (SI=F) are up 27% over the past three months, versus gold's more than 15% rise, and roughly 58% year to date compared with the yellow metal's 45%. On Tuesday, gold futures held near record highs above $3,875 an ounce while silver futures traded around $46. The metal was within striking distance of its closing high of $48.70 — just north of $150 in today's dollars — set in January 1980. That was du ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The current economic backdrop is characterized as a "Goldilocks" scenario, where risky assets are supported despite a slowing US economy, allowing for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts without significant recession fears [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **US Economic Indicators**: Recent weak payroll data and a low unemployment rate indicate a slowing economy, which may lead to more Fed cuts. However, recession risks remain low [1]. - **Inflation and Monetary Policy**: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) aligned with expectations, and the ISM services index showed a modest increase, suggesting stable inflation and supportive monetary policy [1]. - **Risk Appetite Indicator**: The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) reflects growth optimism and dovish monetary policy expectations, with a weaker dollar contributing positively [2]. - **Market Dynamics**: There is a notable divergence between cyclical and defensive stocks, alongside US 10-year yields, indicating a favorable market environment for riskier assets [2]. - **Potential Risks**: Investors may face three potential "bears": a significant growth shock, a rate shock affecting long-duration assets, and a deepening bear market for the dollar. Currently, only the dollar shows signs of weakness [3]. - **Asset Allocation Strategy**: The company maintains a neutral stance on asset allocation for the next three months while being modestly pro-risk for the next twelve months. The commodities team remains bullish on gold, projecting a price of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, while Brent oil prices are expected to remain low [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Equity and Bond Market Outlook**: The report suggests that equities may struggle if US 10-year yields drop due to weaker economic data and rising recession risks [7]. - **Credit Protection**: To hedge against stagflation risks, credit protection is viewed as an attractive option [8]. - **European Market Strategy**: The European strategy team has adjusted price targets based on improving economic conditions, low positioning, and attractive valuations compared to other assets [8]. - **Long-Dated Yields**: There is an expectation of upside risk to long-dated yields, particularly if fiscal dominance concerns persist [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current economic landscape, market dynamics, and strategic outlook for various asset classes.