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国电南瑞:电话会要点:能源存储系统海外业务势头亮眼
2025-12-01 01:29
Summary of Nari Technology - A Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nari Technology - A - **Industry**: Power Equipment and Utilities Key Highlights 1. **New Order Growth**: - New order growth maintained at **20%** for the first 11 months of 2025, consistent with the growth rate in the first nine months of 2025. Strength noted in orders from the ESS (Energy Storage Systems) and renewables sectors [2][4][5] 2. **Overseas Revenue Contribution**: - Overseas ESS revenue accounted for approximately **60%** of total ESS revenue, with a **140%** year-over-year growth in overseas revenue. This contributed to **10%** of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [4][6] 3. **Expense Control**: - Management emphasized stringent control over selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, forecasting that SG&A growth will be much lower than revenue growth this year and in the coming years. R&D spending is expected to remain stable at around **6-7%** of revenue [6][7] 4. **Grid Capital Expenditure Focus**: - Key focus areas for grid capital expenditure during the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) include investments in UHV (Ultra High Voltage), power dispatch systems, ESS, and micro-grids. The State Grid aims to enhance its capacity to dispatch an additional **200GW** of renewable power annually [6][7] 5. **ESS Revenue Guidance**: - Management guided for over **Rmb4 billion** in revenue from ESS products, with overseas revenue contributing around **60%** of this total. The company specializes in ESS integration, offering products such as battery management systems and energy management systems [4][5] 6. **Technological Edge**: - Nari Technology is noted for its understanding of grid connections and automation, providing a competitive advantage in the control and monitoring of ESS systems. However, margins in this sector are currently low, ranging from **15-20%** due to intense competition [5][6] 7. **Investment Thesis**: - The investment thesis is based on expected benefits from policy tailwinds, including stronger renewable installations and grid capex driven by China's 2035 renewable capacity target and plans to double energy storage capacity by 2027 [7][8] 8. **Valuation and Price Target**: - The price target for December 2026 is set at **Rmb28.50**, based on a projected **22x** P/E ratio for 2027, implying a **4.1x** FY26E P/B and a **2.5%** dividend yield [8] Risks - Potential downside risks include lower-than-expected grid capex, margins, and UHV investments, which could impact the company's performance and valuation [9] Conclusion - Nari Technology is positioned to capitalize on growth in the ESS and renewables sectors, with a strong focus on expense control and strategic investments in grid technology. The company maintains an Overweight rating with a positive outlook based on anticipated policy support and market trends [2][7][8]