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South Bow Corporation(SOBO) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-14 16:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported normalized EBITDA of $250 million for the third quarter, with distributable cash flow of $236 million benefiting from a current tax recovery of $71 million due to changes in U.S. tax legislation [12][14] - The outlook for distributable cash flow is revised to approximately $700 million for 2025, with an effective tax rate expected to range between 20-21% [12][14] - The normalized EBITDA guidance for 2025 is reaffirmed at $1.01 billion, with a forecast of $1.03 billion for 2026 [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The marketing segment is expected to see normalized EBITDA approximately $25 million higher, while InterAlberta and other segments are projected to increase by about $10 million due to BlackRod cash flows ramping up [13] - Keystone's normalized EBITDA is anticipated to be approximately $15 million lower due to reduced planned maintenance capital expenditures [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is encouraged by ongoing dialogues in Canada and the U.S. regarding energy solutions, which highlight the resilience of its customers' businesses and the strategic positioning of its assets [5][6] - The company expects conditions to become more favorable for supply growth in late 2026 to early 2027, as supply growth is anticipated to exceed current egress capacity [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its business and enhance competitiveness while ensuring safe operations and financial strength [4][16] - The focus is on leveraging pre-invested corridors for future projects and optimizing processes post-transition from TC Energy [6][29] - The company is committed to maintaining safe operations and progressing towards returning Keystone to baseline operations [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the integrity of the pipeline system following remedial actions and ongoing inspections [8][9] - The company is optimistic about returning Keystone to baseline operations in 2026, ahead of market differentials widening and increased demand for uncommitted capacity [10][16] Other Important Information - The company has successfully completed the BlackRod project on schedule and within budget, with facility commissioning work underway [10] - Legal proceedings related to variable toll disputes have been withdrawn, allowing the company to focus on new business opportunities [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Alberta's proposed crude pipeline and Keystone XL discussions - Management confirmed they are providing advisory support for Alberta's initiative but cannot comment on trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada [19][20] Question: Outlook on crude spreads and inventory normalization - Management anticipates improved conditions for egress in late 2026 to early 2027, driven by supply growth from customers [22] Question: Details on tax optimization and U.S. legislation changes - Tax benefits stem from extended interest deduction legislation and accelerated tax pools, with expectations to return to a regular tax cadence by 2027 [26][27] Question: Impact of transition agreements on cost savings and EBITDA - Management indicated that optimization efforts are not included in the current EBITDA outlook but are expected to contribute positively in the future [29][30] Question: Organic growth opportunities and project types - The company is exploring various growth opportunities in both Canada and the U.S., with a focus on maturing projects [34][35] Question: CapEx assumptions for 2026 - Management suggested a consistent investment of approximately $100 million annually to achieve EBITDA growth targets, with no sanctioned projects currently [43][44] Question: Variable toll settlements and P&L impact - Management confirmed that remaining payments related to variable toll settlements would be normalized out of EBITDA [45][46]