Core Insights - South Bow Corporation (NYSE:SOBO) has received a cautious outlook from Wall Street following mixed results for fiscal Q3 2025, with analysts reiterating Sell ratings and adjusting price targets slightly upward [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported an EPS of $0.47, exceeding estimates by $0.08, but revenue fell 13.7% year-over-year to $461 million, missing estimates by $37 million [2]. - Average throughput on the Keystone Pipeline was approximately 584,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), while the U.S. Gulf Coast segment reported around 703,000 bbl/d [2]. Analyst Ratings and Valuation - Analyst Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo maintained a Sell rating due to ongoing valuation concerns, noting that SOBO trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.2x compared to the sector median of 8.8x [3]. - The potential financial impacts from the MP 171 incident were also highlighted as a concern for the company's outlook [3]. Guidance and Operations - Management has kept its annual 2025 guidance largely unchanged, expecting Normalized EBITDA around $1.010 billion and a slight improvement in the effective tax rate from 23%-24% to 20%-21% [4]. - South Bow Corporation operates critical crude oil pipelines and facilities that connect Alberta's oil production to U.S. refining markets in the Midwest and Gulf Coast [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analyst Robert Kad has raised the price target for South Bow (SOBO) to C$35 from C$34 while maintaining an Underweight rating on the shares, indicating a cautious outlook on the stock despite the price target increase [1]. Group 1: Price Target and Rating - The price target for South Bow (SOBO) has been increased to C$35 from C$34 [1]. - The firm continues to hold an Underweight rating on SOBO shares, suggesting a bearish stance on the stock's performance [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The update on price targets is part of a broader review of North American Midstream & Renewable Energy Infrastructure stocks under Morgan Stanley's coverage [1]. - A framework agreement for a Canadian crude oil pipeline project and oil sands carbon capture has been reached, but there are still several unknowns that remain, indicating potential uncertainties in the sector [1].

South Bow Investor Day Summary Company Overview - **Company**: South Bow - **Event**: Inaugural Investor Day - **Key Executives Present**: Bevin Wirzba (CEO), Van Dafoe (CFO), Richard Prior (COO) [1][2] Core Industry Insights - **Industry Focus**: Heavy oil supply and demand dynamics - **Market Position**: South Bow connects the strongest supply of heavy oil globally to high demand markets in the Midwest and Gulf Coast [4][9] - **Unique Value Proposition**: South Bow operates an integrated value chain, enhancing customer relationships and creating value for both shareholders and customers [4][10] Financial Performance and Goals - **Milestones Achieved**: Successfully completed a spin-off from TC, listed on NYSE on October 8, 2024, and met all initial commitments [6][7] - **Financial Strategy**: Focus on reducing costs, maintaining a lean operational model, and optimizing capital allocation [11][30] - **Debt Management**: Targeting a leverage ratio of four times by 2027, ahead of schedule [30][54] Safety and Operational Excellence - **Safety Record**: Achieved 1.5 million work hours without a recordable incident in 2025 [18] - **Operational Goals**: Continuous improvement in safety performance and operational efficiency [27][33] - **Asset Integrity Focus**: Investing $150 million annually in pipeline integrity programs, aiming for industry-leading performance [56][57] Growth Strategy - **Growth Opportunities**: Plans for both organic growth (e.g., BlackRod project) and inorganic opportunities to expand revenue streams [28][41] - **Market Demand**: Anticipated increase in Canadian crude oil demand in the U.S., particularly in PADD 2 and PADD 3 markets [71][72] - **Production Forecast**: Potential for an additional million barrels per day from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) over the next decade [74] Key Challenges and Responses - **Incident Management**: Addressed the Milepost 171 incident effectively, with rapid response and remediation efforts [62][63] - **Regulatory Compliance**: Ongoing transparency with regulators and commitment to improving pipeline integrity [66][67] Conclusion - **Commitment to Shareholders**: South Bow emphasizes a sustainable dividend, financial discipline, and a focus on long-term growth while maintaining a strong balance sheet [44][45][53] - **Future Outlook**: Confident in the ability to leverage existing assets and market conditions to drive growth and enhance shareholder value [48][72]

Investor Day NOVEMBER 19, 2025 Agenda | CONVERSATION WITH MANAGEMENT | | --- | | | Bevin Wirzba | President & Chief Executive Officer | | --- | --- | --- | | | Van Dafoe | Senior Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer | | | Richard Prior | Senior Vice-President & Chief Operating Officer | | Q&A SESSION | | | | BREAKOUT SESSIONS | | | | Asset Integrity & Safe Operations | Gary Salsman | Vice President, Safety & Operations | | --- | --- | --- | | | Mark Yeomans | Vice President, Engineering & Pipeline Integ ...

I am a seasoned investor and financial journalist with over twenty years of experience in sell-side equity research, corporate and project finance, M&A and valuations, focusing on Canadian electric utilities, and infrastructure sectors. For ten years I worked as an equity research analyst at global banks including UniCredit Securities and HSBC Global Markets. As an analyst, I was top-rated by the Institutional Investor and Extel surveys. I was also responsible for strategic and economic analysis of capital ...

Core Viewpoint - Conifex Timber Inc. reported a negative EBITDA of $16.5 million for Q3 2025, significantly impacted by a one-time noncash charge related to duty deposit underpayments on lumber exports to the U.S. [4] Financial Performance - The negative EBITDA of $16.5 million includes a one-time charge of $12 million; excluding this, the regular EBITDA was negative by just over $4.5 million [4] - The company wrote down its quarter-end inventories by $1.2 million, contributing to the negative EBITDA [4] - For the nine-month period, the regular EBITDA was negative by $2.8 million, showing a major improvement from a loss of $11.5 million in the same period the previous year [4]

Core Insights - Stora Enso hosted an investor and media webcast to discuss significant news released earlier in the day [1] - The webcast featured presentations from the President and CEO, Hans Sohlstrom, and CFO, Niclas Rosenlew, followed by a Q&A session [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported normalized EBITDA of $250 million for the third quarter, with distributable cash flow of $236 million benefiting from a current tax recovery of $71 million due to changes in U.S. tax legislation [12][14] - The outlook for distributable cash flow is revised to approximately $700 million for 2025, with an effective tax rate expected to range between 20-21% [12][14] - The normalized EBITDA guidance for 2025 is reaffirmed at $1.01 billion, with a forecast of $1.03 billion for 2026 [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The marketing segment is expected to see normalized EBITDA approximately $25 million higher due to recovery from losses recorded in 2025 [13] - The InterAlberta and other segments are projected to increase normalized EBITDA by approximately $10 million, reflecting cash flows from the BlackRod project ramping up in the second half of 2026 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates favorable conditions for supply growth in late 2026 to early 2027, which is expected to exceed current egress capacity [22] - The ongoing dialogue between Canada and the U.S. regarding energy solutions is seen as a positive development for the company's market positioning [5][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on growing its business and enhancing competitiveness while ensuring safe operations and financial strength [4][16] - There is an emphasis on leveraging pre-invested corridors for future projects, particularly in Alberta and the U.S. [19] - The company aims to mature and execute its growth portfolio through both organic and inorganic opportunities [35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the integrity of the pipeline system following remedial actions and inspections, aiming to return Keystone to baseline operations by 2026 [8][10] - The company is optimistic about the potential for growth in customer supply and the overall market environment [22] Other Important Information - The company has successfully completed the BlackRod project on schedule and within budget, with facility commissioning work underway [10] - A quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share has been approved, payable on January 15 to shareholders of record on December 31 [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on major projects and crude pipeline - Management confirmed they are providing advisory support for a crude pipeline project in Alberta but emphasized that it is limited to advisory roles [19][20] Question: Outlook on marketing and crude spreads - Management anticipates improved conditions for egress and supply growth by late 2026 to early 2027, with expectations for wider spreads [22] Question: Details on tax optimization and U.S. legislation changes - Tax benefits were derived from extended interest deductions and accelerated tax pools, with expectations for these benefits to continue into 2026 [26][27] Question: Transition agreements and cost savings - Management indicated that optimization efforts have not been included in the EBITDA outlook but are expected to contribute positively in the future [29][30] Question: Organic growth opportunities and project types - The company is exploring various growth opportunities in both Canada and the U.S., with a focus on customer needs [34][35] Question: CapEx assumptions for 2026 - Management suggested that an average investment of around $100 million per year is necessary to achieve the targeted EBITDA growth [43][44] Question: Variable toll settlements and P&L impact - Management confirmed that remaining payments related to variable toll settlements would be normalized out of EBITDA [45][46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported normalized EBITDA of $250 million for the third quarter, with distributable cash flow of $236 million benefiting from a current tax recovery of $71 million due to changes in U.S. tax legislation [12][14] - The outlook for distributable cash flow is revised to approximately $700 million for 2025, with an effective tax rate expected to range between 20-21% [12][14] - The normalized EBITDA guidance for 2025 is reaffirmed at $1.01 billion, with a forecast of $1.03 billion for 2026 [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The marketing segment is expected to see normalized EBITDA approximately $25 million higher, while InterAlberta and other segments are projected to increase by about $10 million due to BlackRod cash flows ramping up [13] - Keystone's normalized EBITDA is anticipated to be approximately $15 million lower due to reduced planned maintenance capital expenditures [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is encouraged by ongoing dialogues in Canada and the U.S. regarding energy solutions, which highlight the resilience of its customers' businesses and the strategic positioning of its assets [5][6] - The company expects conditions to become more favorable for supply growth in late 2026 to early 2027, as supply growth is anticipated to exceed current egress capacity [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its business and enhance competitiveness while ensuring safe operations and financial strength [4][16] - The focus is on leveraging pre-invested corridors for future projects and optimizing processes post-transition from TC Energy [6][29] - The company is committed to maintaining safe operations and progressing towards returning Keystone to baseline operations [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the integrity of the pipeline system following remedial actions and ongoing inspections [8][9] - The company is optimistic about returning Keystone to baseline operations in 2026, ahead of market differentials widening and increased demand for uncommitted capacity [10][16] Other Important Information - The company has successfully completed the BlackRod project on schedule and within budget, with facility commissioning work underway [10] - Legal proceedings related to variable toll disputes have been withdrawn, allowing the company to focus on new business opportunities [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Alberta's proposed crude pipeline and Keystone XL discussions - Management confirmed they are providing advisory support for Alberta's initiative but cannot comment on trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada [19][20] Question: Outlook on crude spreads and inventory normalization - Management anticipates improved conditions for egress in late 2026 to early 2027, driven by supply growth from customers [22] Question: Details on tax optimization and U.S. legislation changes - Tax benefits stem from extended interest deduction legislation and accelerated tax pools, with expectations to return to a regular tax cadence by 2027 [26][27] Question: Impact of transition agreements on cost savings and EBITDA - Management indicated that optimization efforts are not included in the current EBITDA outlook but are expected to contribute positively in the future [29][30] Question: Organic growth opportunities and project types - The company is exploring various growth opportunities in both Canada and the U.S., with a focus on maturing projects [34][35] Question: CapEx assumptions for 2026 - Management suggested a consistent investment of approximately $100 million annually to achieve EBITDA growth targets, with no sanctioned projects currently [43][44] Question: Variable toll settlements and P&L impact - Management confirmed that remaining payments related to variable toll settlements would be normalized out of EBITDA [45][46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported normalized EBITDA of $250 million for the third quarter, with distributable cash flow of $236 million benefiting from a current tax recovery of $71 million due to changes in U.S. tax legislation [11][12] - The outlook for distributable cash flow is revised to approximately $700 million for 2025, with an effective tax rate expected to range between 20-21% [11][12] - The normalized EBITDA guidance for 2025 is reaffirmed at $1.01 billion, with a forecast for 2026 normalized EBITDA of $1.03 billion, reflecting a 2% range increase [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The marketing segment is expected to see normalized EBITDA approximately $25 million higher, while InterAlberta and other segments are projected to increase by about $10 million due to BlackRod cash flows ramping up [12] - Keystone's normalized EBITDA is anticipated to decrease by approximately $15 million due to reduced planned maintenance capital expenditures [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is encouraged by ongoing dialogues in Canada and the U.S. regarding energy solutions, which highlight the resilience of customer businesses and the strategic positioning of the company's assets [5][6] - The company expects conditions to become more favorable for supply growth in late 2026 to early 2027, as supply growth is anticipated to exceed current egress capacity [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its business and enhance competitiveness while ensuring safe operations and financial strength [4][5] - The focus is on maturing and executing a growth portfolio through both organic and inorganic opportunities, with the BlackRod project serving as a successful template [4][30] - The company is working towards exiting transition services with TC Energy by the end of 2025, which is expected to improve efficiency and cost savings [3][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in returning Keystone to baseline operations by 2026, with ongoing remedial actions reinforcing system integrity [7][9] - The company is optimistic about the potential for growth in customer organizations and the overall market environment, which has become more constructive since the spin-off [30][31] Other Important Information - The company has completed significant milestones in the BlackRod project, including mechanical completion and the commissioning of a natural gas lateral [9] - Legal proceedings related to variable toll disputes have been resolved, allowing the company to focus on new business opportunities [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on major projects and Keystone XL discussions - The company is providing advisory support for Alberta's crude pipeline initiative but is not directly involved in the project [17][18] Question: Outlook on crude spreads and inventory normalization - The company anticipates improved conditions for egress in late 2026 to early 2027, driven by supply growth [21][22] Question: Details on tax optimization and U.S. legislation changes - Tax benefits stem from extended interest deduction legislation and accelerated tax pools, with expectations of returning to a regular tax cadence by 2027 [24][25] Question: Impact of transition agreements on efficiency and cost savings - The company is focused on optimizing processes post-transition, which is expected to enhance EBITDA but is not included in the current 2-3% growth outlook [25][27] Question: Organic growth opportunities and project types - The company is exploring various growth opportunities in both Canada and the U.S., with a focus on customer needs [30][31] Question: CapEx assumptions for 2026 - The company suggests a consistent investment of approximately $100 million annually to achieve EBITDA growth, with no sanctioned projects currently [36][38] Question: Variable toll settlements and future P&L impact - Remaining payments related to variable toll settlements will be normalized out of EBITDA, confirming the expected financial impact [40][41]