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Newmont Shares Rally 85% YTD: How Should You Play the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-08-19 13:40
Core Insights - Newmont Corporation's shares have increased by 85.4% year-to-date, driven by a rise in gold prices due to trade and geopolitical uncertainties, along with strong earnings performance [1][6] - The stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 72.2% and the S&P 500's rise of 9.6% [1] - Newmont's peers, including Barrick Mining, Agnico Eagle Mines, and Kinross Gold, have seen stock increases of 56.5%, 70.7%, and 109.1% respectively [1] Financial Performance - Newmont's liquidity stands at $10.2 billion, with free cash flow reaching $1.7 billion, supporting dividends and share repurchases [6][12] - The company has reduced debt by $1.4 billion since the beginning of 2025 and has authorized an additional $3 billion share repurchase program [12] - Newmont's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised upward, with a projected growth of 51.4% year-over-year [17] Growth Strategy - Newmont is investing in growth projects such as the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at increasing production capacity [9] - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining has enhanced Newmont's portfolio, expected to deliver $500 million in annual run-rate synergies [10] - The company has divested non-core assets, generating approximately $470 million in cash proceeds, and anticipates $3 billion from its 2025 divestiture program [11] Market Conditions - Gold prices have increased by roughly 27% this year, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, currently hovering above $3,300 [13][15] - The demand for gold is supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to sustain favorable bullion prices [15] Valuation Metrics - Newmont is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 13.12X, slightly below the industry average of 13.45X [19] - The company has a Value Score of B, indicating a competitive valuation compared to peers [19] Investment Outlook - Newmont presents a strong investment case with a robust portfolio, solid financial health, and rising earnings estimates, making it a favorable choice for investors looking to capitalize on the gold market [22]