We got weekly jobless numbers from ADP and Steve Leeman's got those numbers and a special guest. Good morning, Steve. >> Good morning, Andrew.ADP reporting it is preliminary weekly change in payrolls for the week ending November 8th. The four-week average of weekly jobless ch job changes declining by 13,500 per week. Worse than the prior week, which was actually revised down from -2500 to -7,500.This is a new data series and subject to revision. We're figuring how to work with this. A lot of volatility.The ...

Labor Market Overview - The labor market is showing signs of stabilization, potentially indicating that the negative impact on payrolls was short-lived [1] - The recovery is tepid and slower compared to earlier in the year, suggesting cautious optimism rather than a full restoration of robust job gains [2] - Timing is crucial in understanding the complex and fast-moving labor market [2] Employment by Firm Size - Large companies account for a quarter or less of U S employment, highlighting the importance of small firms [3] - Most U S workers are employed by small firms, emphasizing the need to pay attention to this sector [3] Sector-Specific Trends - The services sector and manufacturing are still experiencing contraction in employment [4] - Trade, transportation, and utilities are showing job gains [4] - Healthcare is a strong and acyclical sector, driven by the aging population and increasing demand for healthcare services [4][5] - Leisure and hospitality are a concern, as hiring numbers in this sector are not as resilient as before [5][6] Economic Concerns - Consumer resilience has been fueling the economy, but a decline in resilience in the leisure and hospitality sector is a concern [6] - Announcements of cuts in big companies eventually trickle into the labor market [4]

Employment Data Analysis - ADP private payroll data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly lower than the estimated increase of 45,000 [1] - The August data was revised down by 57,000 from an increase of 54,000 to a decrease of 3,000, reflecting a new growth rate in the job market [2] - Small businesses experienced a decrease of 40,000 jobs, medium businesses decreased by 20,000 jobs, while large businesses increased by 33,000 jobs [3] - Leisure and hospitality sector saw a decline of 19,000 jobs [3] - Job stayers experienced a wage increase of 45%, while job changers saw an increase of 66%, down from 71% in August [3][4] Economic Indicators and Trends - The report indicates a slowdown in hiring momentum compared to the beginning of the year [8] - Initial jobless claims remain low, suggesting a low-fire jobs market [10] - Strong GDP growth in the second quarter, driven by consumer spending, raises questions about its sustainability for labor market growth [10][11][12] - Ten-year Treasury yield experienced a slight decrease, reaching 416%, then 410%, a drop of six basis points [13] Data and Methodology - ADP rebenchmarks its data annually to align with the BLS data, which serves as a near census of US workers covered by employment insurance [6][7] - The BLS relies on survey data from the CES survey, while ADP uses an independent measure [18] - The Fed is known to access ADP data with more granularity [15][16] Government Shutdown Impact - A government shutdown would not directly affect ADP's next report, as it does not rely on survey data [17] - Potential layoffs in the government sector could impact private sector employment, particularly among contractors [26]