Holiday Traffic

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Does Traffic Growth Signal a Strong Holiday Setup for Costco?
ZACKSยท 2025-09-02 15:06
Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation reported strong traffic growth, with comparable traffic increasing 5.2% globally and 5.5% in the United States in Q3 fiscal 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the holiday season [1][9] - The company's strategic initiatives, including price reductions and extended gas station hours, have successfully attracted more shoppers and increased sales [2][3] - Digital channels have significantly contributed to traffic growth, with online sales rising 14.8% and Costco Logistics deliveries of bulky items surging 31% year over year [4][9] Traffic and Sales Performance - The increase in foot traffic is complemented by a 2.7% rise in adjusted comparable ticket sales, suggesting that members are visiting more frequently and spending more per visit [3] - Costco's stock has outperformed the industry, rising 7.3% over the past year compared to the industry's growth of 5.8% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 8.1% in sales and 11.6% in earnings per share for the current financial year [11] Competitive Landscape - Walmart reported a 4.6% increase in U.S. comparable sales, driven by grocery and health & wellness, while Target showed signs of recovery with a 4.3% increase in comparable digital sales [5][6] - The competitive retail environment highlights the importance of traffic during the holiday season, with Costco, Walmart, and Target all showing varying degrees of growth [7] Financial Metrics - Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 52.48, significantly higher than the industry's ratio of 31.72, indicating a premium valuation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco's current quarter sales is $85.98 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 7.88% [14]